1-2月贸易数据点评：出口保持强韧性，进口同比增速上行

Export Performance - In January-February 2026, China's export value reached $656.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%[3] - In February 2026, exports amounted to $299.88 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 39.6%[4] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year and a recovery in global manufacturing PMI, which remained above the threshold at 50.9% and 51.9%[4] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the EU increased by 27.8%, up 19.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by the recovery in EU manufacturing[4] - Exports to Africa saw a remarkable growth of 49.9%, while exports to ASEAN and Japan grew by 29.4% and 8.9%, respectively[4] - Exports to the US decreased by 11.0%, although the decline was less severe compared to a 20.0% drop in December 2025[4] Import Performance - In January-February 2026, China's import value totaled $442.96 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 19.8%[5] - February imports were $208.90 billion, reflecting a 13.8% increase compared to the same month last year[5] - The increase in imports was primarily due to recovering domestic demand and higher imports of intermediate goods related to rising exports[5] Regional Import Trends - Imports from the EU rose by 11.7%, while imports from South Korea surged by 35.8%[5] - Imports from Japan increased by 26.5%, whereas imports from the US fell by 26.7%, marking a significant widening of the decline compared to December 2025[5] Product-Specific Insights - Imports of electromechanical products and high-tech products grew by 24.0% and 27.7%, respectively, contributing significantly to overall import growth[5] - Agricultural products saw a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, with edible vegetable oil surging by 52.4%[5] - Integrated circuit imports increased by 39.8%, reflecting the impact of the AI technology wave on demand[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy uncertainties, unexpected changes in macroeconomic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks overseas[6]