KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-03-14 07:33Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for power equipment is expected to remain high due to the continuous deepening of electricity reforms [3] - The green electricity consumption assessment scope has been expanded, shaping a new ecosystem in the industry [11] - The supply of green certificates is stabilizing, and prices are expected to return to reflect the environmental value of green electricity [19] - New energy consumption new business models are anticipated to create a second growth curve for operators [5] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Assessment Expansion - In July 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice expanding the renewable energy consumption responsibility assessment to include industries such as steel, polysilicon, cement, and newly built data centers [11] - By 2026, the green electricity consumption ratio for these industries is expected to be 80% [11][12] Supply Stabilization and Green Certificate Pricing - The green certificate supply has stabilized following a supply shock in late 2024, with a total of 47.34 billion certificates issued in 2024, of which 31.58 billion were tradable [20] - The trading volume of green certificates is expected to improve, with a projected price of 5 yuan per certificate leading to an increase in operators' environmental value earnings by 1.0 yuan per megawatt-hour for every 20% increase in coverage [23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality assets and stable profitability in new energy generation operators, with recommended stocks including Longyuan Power (H), Xintian Green Energy (H), and Datang New Energy (H) [26] - The anticipated growth in green certificate market activity is expected to benefit these operators significantly [5][26] Data Center Energy Consumption Growth - From 2019 to 2024, China's data center annual electricity consumption increased from 82.4 billion kilowatt-hours to 166 billion kilowatt-hours, with an average annual growth rate of 15.0% [15] - By 2030, the annual electricity consumption of data centers is projected to reach between 390 billion and 820 billion kilowatt-hours [15] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the green certificate market is expected to gain vitality as major energy-consuming sectors face green electricity consumption assessments [5][23] - The anticipated return of green certificate prices to reflect their environmental value is expected to ensure reasonable profit levels for operators [19][23]