Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market shows resilience amidst fluctuating expectations regarding the US-Iran conflict, with prior stable policies preventing excessive surges and maintaining market expectations for mid-term trends [1][4] - A-shares are adapting to a competitive mindset, reflecting changes in relative national power and China's ability to navigate complex international environments, indicating a significant optimization of market characteristics and a solid foundation for a bull market [1][4] - The current market is transitioning from a structural bull phase to a range-bound phase, with overall static valuations at historical highs, making it more challenging to uncover new structural opportunities [1][5] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is in a transitional phase, confirming the impact of the US-Iran conflict as a stage transition rather than a direct threat [1][5] - Static valuations in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, power equipment, defense, computing, and basic chemicals are at historical highs, indicating a general demand for a transition to a range-bound market [1][5] - The report anticipates that the range-bound market may last for 1-2 quarters, with potential for a bull market 2.0 to start around mid-2026 if there are no significant negative trends in the industry [1][5] Group 3 - The market's accumulation phase is characterized by a lack of high-low cuts or style switches, focusing instead on the dissipation of leading sectors and core stocks entering high-level oscillation zones [1][6] - New opportunity discovery is decreasing, but elastic investment opportunities are expected to arise mainly from the extension of main assets and the expansion of macro narratives [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the AI industry chain and cyclical alpha new sub-segment opportunities, particularly in hardware and application sectors, as well as the potential for price increases in basic chemicals [1][7]
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(26/03/09-26/03/14)：A股沿着自身路径前进
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-14 11:50