全球经济观察2026年第4期：高油价推升利率预期

Global Asset Performance - Global bond market yields have generally risen, with the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increasing by 17 and 13 basis points respectively[14] - Major global stock indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, fell by 1.6%, 2%, and 1.3% respectively[14] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged by 18.1% and 17.6% respectively, while London gold prices dropped by 3%[14] Central Bank Monetary Policy - Market expectations for U.S. and European policy rates have shifted upward, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December dropping to 61% from 96.6% a month ago[5] - The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 30 to 35 basis points this year due to persistent inflation risks[5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.4% in February, with core CPI also steady at 2.5%[20] - The core PCE price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in January, the highest since March 2024, while the overall PCE index increased by 2.8%[20] Oil Price Intervention Measures - The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated release since 1974[22] - The U.S. plans to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve over approximately 120 days[22] Economic Sentiment in Europe and Asia - The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index fell to -3.1 in March, significantly below expectations and previous values[30] - Japan announced the release of 8 million barrels of oil and refined products starting March 16, covering about 45 days of domestic supply[35]