固收周报（3月9日-3月13日）：十债回升至1.8%以上，关注地缘扰动持续性-20260314

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market yield trended upward this week, mainly influenced by the decline in broad - money expectations, re - inflation expectations, and the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The 10 - year yield rose to above 1.8%, and short - term bearish disturbances still exist. Attention should be paid to the performance of investment and consumption data, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on inflation expectations, and the allocation of the 10 - year bond after the yield increase. [1][4][5] - Next week, it is necessary to focus on the quality of the first investment and consumption data of the year, the central bank's liquidity support, and the changes in risk - aversion sentiment and imported inflation pressure under the spread of geopolitical conflicts, which may be the main driving factors for the short - term bond market. [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Bond Market: Interest Rates Fluctuated Upward, and the Yield Curve Steepened - The overall bond market yield increased from March 9th to 13th, affected by the decline in broad - money expectations, re - inflation expectations, and the US - Iran conflict. As of March 13th, the yields of 30Y, 10Y, and 1Y government bonds changed by +8.53BP, +3.33BP, and - 1.00BP respectively, reaching 2.37%, 1.81%, and 1.28%. The term spreads of 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y changed by +5.20BP and +4.23BP respectively, reaching 55.22BP and 53.75BP. [1][9] - The reasons for the upward movement of the 10Y yield include the disappointment of monetary - policy easing expectations, the better - than - expected export and inflation data, and the intensification of global economic uncertainty due to the Iranian situation, which has disturbed the imported inflation expectations. [1][9] - The daily performance of the bond market from March 9th to 13th was as follows: on March 9th, the yield increased; on March 10th, it fluctuated within a narrow range; on March 11th, there was a differentiation between long - and short - term yields; on March 12th, the yield generally declined; on March 13th, the yield increased across the board. [25][26] 2. Next Week's Outlook and Strategy (1) Bond - Market Outlook: Pay Attention to the Performance of Investment and Consumption Data and Changes in Re - inflation Expectations - Fundamentals: Production indicators showed mixed performance, with most rebounding. The real - estate transaction volume increased year - on - year, and the price index of the inflation sector was also divided. The crude - oil price continued to rise after turning positive last week. [2][29] - Production: The automobile semi - steel tire and blast - furnace operating rates increased by 3.68 and 0.67 percentage points to 77.71% and 78.36% respectively, while the refined PTA operating rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.85%. [29] - Demand: Most indicators in the demand side increased, with the year - on - year land transaction volume rising significantly. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, while the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities (with one - week lag in data) increased by 419.48% year - on - year, and the passenger - car sales volume increased by 54.38% year - on - year (with four - week lag in data). [35] - Prices: The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.09% month - on - month, and the price index of edible agricultural products increased by 0.5% (with three - week lag in data). The price index of production materials decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (with three - week lag in data), and the year - on - year increase in crude - oil prices expanded to 25.24% after turning positive last week. [41] - Supply: From March 9th to 15th, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds increased. This week, 432 billion yuan of government bonds, 135.545 billion yuan of local bonds, and 847.09 billion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total increase of 276.751 billion yuan compared to last week. The issuance progress of local bonds reached 24.6% (including the announced issuance scale for next week), with the issuance progress of new special bonds and new general bonds reaching 23.5% and 30.9% respectively. [2][55] - Funding: From March 9th to 13th, the central bank net - withdrew 10.11 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchases and announced a 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase on March 16th. The funding situation tightened marginally this week. DR001 and DR007 increased by less than +1BP and +5BP respectively to 1.32% and 1.46%. The yields of 3M and 1Y commercial - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1BP and 2BP respectively to 1.5% and 1.53%. It is expected that the probability of a continuous and systematic tightening of the funding situation is limited, and the funding situation is likely to return to a balanced state after the tax period. [3][61] (2) Bond - Market Strategy: The 10 - Year Bond Yield Returned Above 1.8%, and Short - Term Bearish Disturbances Still Exist - Pay attention to three aspects of changes: the performance of the first complete investment and consumption data of the year, the impact of oil - price fluctuations on imported inflation expectations under the spread of geopolitical conflicts, and the allocation situation of the 10 - year bond after the yield increase. [4][73] - Next week, focus on the following factors: - Fundamentals: This week's CPI and import - export data significantly exceeded market expectations, disturbing the bond market. Pay attention to whether the first investment and consumption data for January - February will become new clues for fundamental changes and continuously affect the bond market. [5][73][78] - External Uncertainty and Imported Inflation: This week's re - inflation expectations led the bond market to decline slightly. The continuous moderate increase in domestic CPI data and the sharp rise in crude - oil prices due to the Israel - Iran conflict have increased global concerns about imported inflation. If the oil price remains high, there is a risk of a shift from inflation expectations to actual imported inflation, which may lead to significant adjustments in the bond market. [5][78] - Institutional Behavior: This week, the bond market adjusted, and the 10 - year bond yield returned above 1.8%. The trading and allocation sentiments changed significantly. Public - offering funds significantly reduced their net holdings by 73.2 billion yuan, while insurance companies increased their holdings by 48.1 billion yuan. The 10 - year bond yield is currently fluctuating around 1.82%, and short - term disturbances still exist. It is expected to fluctuate weakly above 1.8%, and attention should be paid to the allocation value during further adjustments. [5][78] - In general, next week, it is necessary to closely observe the quality of the first investment and consumption data of the year and the evolution of fundamental expectations, as well as the central bank's liquidity support and the changes in risk - aversion sentiment and imported inflation pressure under geopolitical conflicts. The short - term trading value of the 10 - year bond at around 1.82% has emerged. Given the bearish disturbances, attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities brought about by significant adjustments. The short - end yield has limited potential for short - term gains, while the long - end yield has shown trading value, and investors are advised to seize the allocation window. [6][79] 3. Next Week's Open - Market Operations and Financial Calendar - Open - Market Operations: The central bank's net - injection (or net - withdrawal) amounts in the past few weeks and the expected net - withdrawal amounts in the next few weeks are provided, including data on reverse - repurchase operations, outright reverse - repurchases, and MLF operations. [80] - Funding Calendar: The expected issuance scale of local government bonds, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit, the maturity scale of reverse - repurchases, and whether it is a tax - payment or reserve - payment week from March 16th to 22nd are presented. [80] - Financial Calendar: The time and market expectations of various economic indicators to be announced next week, such as February's fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year growth rate, social - consumer - goods retail sales year - on - year growth rate, and industrial - added - value year - on - year growth rate, are listed. [81]