锡周报：供需双弱，锡价震荡运行-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tin supply has marginally improved compared to before the holiday but remains constrained by raw material shortages. With pressure on both the ore and recycling ends, the release of smelting capacity is slow, and short - term supply increments are expected to be limited, keeping the tin supply in a tight pattern [11]. - Tin demand has also marginally improved, but high prices and a wait - and - see attitude are the dominant factors. Short - term consumption is likely to maintain a weak recovery pattern [11]. - Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 55,000 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December 2025, China's imports of tin concentrates increased significantly, alleviating the shortage of raw material supply. The imported physical volume of tin concentrates was 17,637 tons, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. Imports from Africa decreased by 11.1%, from Myanmar increased by 14.3%, from Australia increased by 91.5%, and from South America increased by 118.5%. The export scale of Myanmar in February remained at a relatively high level [11]. - Supply side: This week, the tin supply side showed the characteristics of "post - holiday recovery but limited upside". After the Spring Festival and Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday lows. However, the increase is mainly a regular post - holiday recovery, not driven by improved raw materials or increased demand. Yunnan's recovery is faster, while Jiangxi's is slower. Yunnan is still affected by the tight supply of Burmese tin ore, and Jiangxi is restricted by the slow recovery of the scrap tin recycling system [11]. - Demand side: This week, the tin demand side is still in a weak recovery stage, with slow consumption recovery and strong wait - and - see sentiment. In March, the actual procurement improvement of end - users is limited. High tin prices and large price volatility have suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Traditional consumption sectors are weak, photovoltaic demand has slightly improved but the increment is not significant, and the household appliance sector has a marginal demand recovery but is still far from driving the industry into an active restocking stage [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tin spot prices fluctuate with futures, and the premium and discount remain stable [19]. 3.3 Cost Side - The average monthly domestic tin ore production fluctuates around 6,000 tons [24]. - The processing fee for tin concentrates has risen again. The processing fee for 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan has increased from 10,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, indicating a marginal relief of tin ore shortage [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - The production of domestic refined tin and recycled tin has remained basically stable. In January, domestic refined tin production was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; in February, recycled tin production was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [32]. - Affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at relatively low levels [35]. - In December 2025, the domestic import volume of refined tin was 1,547.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25% [41]. 3.5 Demand Side - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [46]. - In the consumer electronics field, in December 2025, the production of PC was 31.4 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%, and the cumulative production from January to December was 348.5 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. The production of domestic smartphones in December was 126.54 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the cumulative production from January to December was 1.2695 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9% [49]. - In the white - goods field, the sales of washing machines grew rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% in 2025. The performance of other products was relatively average. The year - on - year growth rates of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs were 0.7%, 1.6%, and - 2.6% respectively. The combined sales of the four major household appliances decreased by 0.2% year - on - year [52]. - In the tin - consumption field, tin consumption in the tinplate field decreased slightly year - on - year, mainly due to the replacement of tinplate cans by aluminum cans in the beverage packaging industry. The production of PVC increased slightly year - on - year in 2025 [59]. - In December, the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable, and the apparent consumption increased slightly month - on - month [62]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - After the Spring Festival, the global visible tin inventory has steadily increased. As of March 13, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,805 tons, an increase of 555 tons compared to the same period last month [67].