股指周报：地缘冲突加剧，逢低布局-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran continues to intensify, leading to an increase in energy prices. The US core PCE data and employment are basically in line with expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts and causing an increase in US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the 301 investigation raises trade risks. - In China, the narrowing of PPI and fiscal stimulus have improved corporate financing demand. Due to energy self - sufficiency and reserve advantages, and the narrowing of the tariff gap with other economies facing the US, China's export boom is expected to continue. - In the medium to long term, the main idea is to buy on dips [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: Iran's Supreme Leader warns of not giving up revenge, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and a potential $200 - per - barrel oil price; the US is deploying more troops. The US will initiate a 301 investigation against 16 economies including China. The International Energy Agency's 32 member countries will release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. The central bank will conduct a scaled - down renewal of a 6 - month repurchase agreement, with a 500 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on March 16, a reduction of 100 billion yuan. Multinational pharmaceutical companies are investing in China, with Eli Lilly planning a $3 - billion investment over 10 years [11]. - Economic and Corporate Earnings: China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0, down from 49.3. CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 1.0% month - on - month, with core CPI up 1.8%. PPI in February increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. In February 2026, M1 growth was 5.9% and M2 growth was 9.0%. The social financing increment in the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 316.2 billion yuan. Exports in January - February 2026 increased by 21.8% year - on - year in US dollar terms. The US core PCE price index in January increased by 3.1% year - on - year [11]. - Interest Rate and Credit Environment: This week, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate have both increased, the credit spread has slightly decreased, and liquidity is abundant [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as the valuation is at a medium - low level and IM has a long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Stock Index Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70% to 4095.45 points; the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.76% to 14280.78 points; the ChiNext Index increased by 2.51% to 3310.28 points, etc. [16]. - Futures Contract Performance: For example, IF当月 increased by 0.18% to 4658.0 points, and its trading volume was 439 billion yuan; IH当月 decreased by 1.15% to 2957.0 points, etc. [17]. 3.3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%. In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.0. In December 2025, the consumption growth rate was 0.9%, and the investment growth rate was - 3.8%. Exports from January - February 2026 increased by 21.8% year - on - year in US dollar terms [35][38][41]. - Corporate Earnings: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89% [44]. 3.4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate are presented in the report. On March 13, the weighted average R007 rate was 1.5033%, up 1.13 basis points from last week. On March 16, a 500 - billion - yuan repurchase operation will be carried out, with 600 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase agreements expiring in March, a reduction of 100 billion yuan [48][52]. - Credit Environment: In February 2026, M1 growth was 5.9% and M2 growth was 9.0%. The social financing increment from January - February 2026 was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 316.2 billion yuan [60]. 3.5. Capital Flow - Inflow: This week, about 22.618 billion new shares of equity - oriented funds were established. The margin trading balance in the two markets increased by 18.3 billion yuan, with the latest balance at 2.645929 trillion yuan. The scale of each ETF decreased slightly [67][70]. - Outflow: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 676.4 million yuan in holdings, and the number of IPOs was 1 [73]. 3.6. Valuation - Price - Earnings Ratio (TTM): The PE of SSE 50 is 11.49, CSI 300 is 14.21, CSI 500 is 37.11, and CSI 1000 is 49.88. - Price - to - Book Ratio (LF): The PB of SSE 50 is 1.27, CSI 300 is 1.50, CSI 500 is 2.57, and CSI 1000 is 2.68 [78].