苯乙烯周报：美伊冲突有所缓和，油化工冲高回落-20260314

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, causing crude oil prices to rise and then fall, with the energy and chemical sector following the trend. The overall valuation of styrene is moderately high. The supply - side pressure has alleviated, the demand side has entered the seasonal peak season, downstream profits have rebounded from the low level, and port inventories are decreasing. It is recommended to take profit and exit the market, and wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships in the Strait of Hormuz to short the spread between BZ2604 - BZ2605 [11][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, crude oil prices have risen and fallen, and the energy and chemical sector has fluctuated. Styrene's weekly increase shows spot > cost > futures, the basis has strengthened, the BZN spread has increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has risen. The spot price of pure benzene in East China last week increased by 9.38%, the active contract price of pure benzene futures increased by 11.71%, the basis of pure benzene decreased by 164 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of pure benzene has rebounded from a low level. The utilization rate of EB production capacity is 74.11%, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.18%, a year - on - year decrease of - 2.10%, and a decrease of - 3.38% compared with the five - year average. The non - integrated profit of styrene is oscillating at a high level, and the operating rate is seasonally oscillating. In December, China's pure benzene imports were 537160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, mainly from the Middle East. EB imports in December were 31100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.67% and a year - on - year increase of 65.68%. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased marginally, and the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports has decreased significantly. The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products is 40.79%, a month - on - month increase of 33.95%; the operating rate of PS is 51.50%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25% and a year - on - year decrease of - 18.12%; the operating rate of EPS is 58.76%, a month - on - month increase of 382.66% and a year - on - year decrease of - 5.73%; the operating rate of ABS is 69.50%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.70% and a year - on - year decrease of - 6.59%. In the seasonal peak season, the downstream profits are at a low level compared with the same period in history, and the operating rate is seasonally decreasing. The in - factory inventory of EB is 189500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of - 23.58%; the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports is 166500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 5.18% and a year - on - year decrease of - 14.22%. The port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, and the decline of styrene port inventory has slowed down [11][12] - Strategy Viewpoint: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, crude oil prices have risen and fallen, and the energy and chemical sector has fluctuated. The BZN spread has increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has risen, with the overall valuation moderately high. The supply - side pressure of styrene has alleviated, the demand side has entered the seasonal peak season, the profits of downstream three S products have rebounded from the low level in the same period, the operating rate has seasonally increased, and port inventories are decreasing. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict has made styrene bullish, the profit of non - integrated plants has been significantly repaired, and the EB - BZ spread has reached the high level in the same period in history. Currently, the profit is moderately high, and it is recommended to take profit and exit. This week's forecast: for pure benzene (BZ2604), the reference oscillation range is (8700 - 9000); for styrene (EB2604), the reference oscillation range is (10500 - 13000). The recommended strategy is to short the spread between BZ2604 - BZ2605 when the number of ships in the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [13] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided, including the spot price, main contract price, basis, active contract trading volume, open interest, and various spreads of styrene from 2022 to 2026, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are given in the text [16][19][21] 3. Profit and Inventory - Inventory Situation: The port inventory of pure benzene is oscillating at a high level, and the styrene inventory has reached a phased peak. The in - factory inventory of styrene and the port inventory in East China are also presented through charts [35][39] - Profit Situation: The POSM profit of styrene has been continuously declining. The production processes of styrene mainly include ethylbenzene dehydrogenation (85%), PO/SM co - production (12%), and C8 extraction (3%). The top ten styrene production enterprises account for 44% of the total production capacity [41][43][46] 4. Cost Side - Industry Chain and Price Relationship: Charts show the production capacity and output of pure benzene in China, the composition of pure benzene, and the profit of the crude oil - naphtha - pure benzene - styrene - PS industry chain [51][53] - Price Spread Situation: The BZN spread has been continuously repaired, and the import profit of pure benzene and the price spreads between China - South Korea and the US - South Korea are presented. The US gasoline crack spread has significantly declined, the operating rate of pure benzene and hydrogenated pure benzene is shown, and the production margins and operating rates of downstream products such as phenol, aniline, caprolactam, and adipic acid are also provided. The inventory of phenol in Jiangyin Port is seasonally oscillating, and the downstream demand proportion of pure benzene is given, with styrene accounting for 41% [56][64][87][89] 5. Supply Side - The daily output of styrene is oscillating at a high level, and charts show the export volume, weekly operating rate, and import volume of styrene [98][99][101] 6. Demand Side - Downstream Capacity and Output: Charts show the production capacity, output, and growth rates of PS, EPS, and ABS in China [110] - Operating Rate and Profit: The operating rate of PS is seasonally rebounding, the operating rate of EPS and its production profit are presented, the operating rate of ABS is oscillating at a low level, and the profits and inventories of these downstream products are also shown. The demand proportion of styrene downstream is given, with PS accounting for 35%, EPS for 21%, and ABS for 15%. The sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of household refrigerators, as well as the sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of washing machines are presented, and the production year - on - year of washing machines is moderately high [113][121][131][142]