工业硅&多晶硅周报 2026/03/14：工业硅成本支撑，震荡为主；多晶硅重心下移，偏弱运行-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate under cost support. The supply side shows little change in production, with a slight increase in Xinjiang and low - level operation in the Southwest. The demand side is characterized by slow growth in polysilicon, stable DMC production, and a slight increase in the silicon - aluminum alloy开工率. Overall, it presents a situation of weak supply and demand [16]. - Polysilicon has a weak fundamental situation with price pressure. Slow inventory removal in the silicon wafer segment and lower - than - expected downstream enterprise开工率 lead to a negative feedback on the upstream silicon material segment. With a slight increase in production, inventory pressure further increases, and the spot price decline has limited support for the futures market. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [18]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand - Polysilicon weekly output is 19,600 tons, with a slight increase [14]. - DMC output is 41,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous week. In February, DMC output was 163,700 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons compared to the previous month [14]. - From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55% [14]. - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [14]. - Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 547,200 tons. Factory inventory was 254,900 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons; market inventory was 182,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 109,900 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons [14]. - Price and Cost - As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) had a premium of 525 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 5.71%; the 421 had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 1.42% [15]. - The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,545 yuan/ton, 9,712 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,994 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon was 66,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the previous week. In February, the output was 237,900 tons, a decrease of 82,200 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative output from January to February was 558,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,800 tons or 4.74% [15]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon - As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) had a premium of 525 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 5.71%; the 421 had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 1.42% [23]. - Polysilicon - As of March 13, 2026, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 43.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 42,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 925 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 3,960 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 8.61% [26]. 3.3. Industrial Silicon - Total Output - As of March 13, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 66,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the previous week. In February, the output was 237,900 tons, a decrease of 82,200 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative output from January to February was 558,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,800 tons or 4.74% [31]. - Main Production Areas Output - Data on the output of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in graphs [33][35][38]. - Production Cost - As of March 13, 2026, the electricity price in the main production areas remained unchanged, and the silicon stone price was stable. The silicon coal price was stable compared to before the holiday. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,545 yuan/ton, 9,712 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,994 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [44][47]. - Explicit Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 547,200 tons. Factory inventory was 254,900 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons; market inventory was 182,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 109,900 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons [50]. 3.4. Polysilicon - Output - As of March 13, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 19,600 tons, with a slight increase. In February, the output was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative output from January to February was 177,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.63% [55]. - 开工率 and Scheduled Production - In February, the polysilicon开工率 was 29.11%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points. It is expected that the output in March will be 84,900 tons, with a slight increase [58]. - Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 372,900 tons, and the SMM - caliber inventory was 357,000 tons [61]. - Cost and Profit - As of March 13, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 44,189.79 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 1,663.47 yuan/ton, turning into a loss [64]. - Silicon Wafer - The weekly output of silicon wafers was 11.98 GW, with a slight increase. In February, the output was 44.27 GW, a decrease of 1.66 GW. The cumulative output from January to February was 90.20 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 4.37%. The silicon wafer inventory was 28.35 GW, a decrease. It is predicted that the output in March will be 49.01 GW, an increase [67][70]. - Battery Chip - In February, the output of battery chips was 37.09 GW, a decrease of 4.35 GW. The cumulative output from January to February was 78.53 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 11.98%. The开工率 in February was 38.06%, a decrease of 4.46 percentage points. The inventory was 6.98 GW, a decrease. It is expected that the output in March will be 46.36 GW, a significant increase [75][78]. - Component - In February, the output of components was 29.3 GW, a decrease of 5.9 GW. The开工率 was 28.44%, a decrease of 5.73 percentage points. The cumulative output from January to February was 64.5 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13.77%. The component inventory was 27.7 GW, a slight decrease. It is expected that the output in March will be 41.39 GW, a significant increase [83][86]. 3.5. Organic Silicon - Output - As of March 13, 2026, the DMC output was 41,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous week. In February, the output was 163,700 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons compared to the previous month [93]. - Price and Profit - As of March 13, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 14,150 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The DMC gross profit was 1,350 yuan/ton [96]. - Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the DMC inventory was 46,100 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons compared to the previous week [99]. 3.6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - Aluminum Alloy - As of March 13, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 25,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 25,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. The开工率 of primary aluminum alloy was 53%, and the开工率 of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.8% [105][108]. - Export - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [111].