贵金属周报：地缘风险下金价承压但韧性仍存-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the precious metals market declined horizontally due to multiple factors, with geopolitical conflicts being the core cause. The ongoing escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have pushed up international oil prices, leading to inflation concerns. This has caused the market to expect the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices. Additionally, investors' cautious attitude has further increased the downward pressure on the precious metals market [11]. - In the short term, the upward momentum of precious metals is suppressed by the postponed expectation of Fed rate cuts, while the safe - haven demand brought by the US - Iran war provides short - term support for gold. The VIX panic index remains at a high level, and the downside risk of gold and silver is limited. The Fed's qualitative assessment of the energy shock next week will affect the subsequent trend. In the long term, the strength of precious metals is based on the global de - dollarization trend, and the high global debt restricts the ability of central banks to tighten monetary policies, providing support for the long - term trend of precious metals [11]. - Currently, the gold price is in a sideways consolidation state. The sharp rise in oil prices under the background of the US - Iran war has pushed up market inflation expectations and made the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The Fed will be cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts, and it is difficult to see rapid easing policy signals in the short term, which will suppress precious metals prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: This week, Shanghai gold fell 0.61% to 1,133.00 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 2.90% to 20,923.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 1.88% to 5,084.10 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.87% to 83.96 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.27%; the US dollar index rose 1.04% to 99.74 [11]. - Influencing Factors: Geopolitical conflicts are the core cause. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has pushed up oil prices, increasing inflation expectations. The Fed's inflation target has not returned to a reasonable range, and the employment market is cooling. The market expects the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts, which suppresses gold prices. Investor caution also increases the downward pressure on the precious metals market [11]. - Short - term and Long - term Outlook: In the short term, the upward momentum of precious metals is suppressed, but the safe - haven demand provides support. In the long term, the de - dollarization trend and high global debt support the precious metals market [11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3.2. Gold Weekly Review - Price and Volume Data: As of the close on March 13, Shanghai gold fell 0.61% this week, with a high of 1,151.98 yuan/gram and a low of 1,133.00 yuan/gram; COMEX gold fell 1.88%, with a high of 5,198.70 US dollars/ounce and a low of 5084.10 US dollars/ounce [20][22]. - Inventory: As of this Friday, the COMEX gold inventory was 1036.40 tons [34]. - Funding: As of the latest reporting period this week, the net long position of COMEX gold managed funds was 97,900 lots, with long positions of 123,500 lots and short positions of 25,500 lots. The total position of major foreign gold ETF funds was 1719.98 tons [41][43]. 3.3. Silver Weekly Review - Price and Volume Data: As of the close on March 13, Shanghai silver rose 15.64%, with a high of 22,758.00 yuan/kilogram and a low of 21,547.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX silver fell 0.87%, with a high of 88.57 US dollars/ounce and a low of 83.95 US dollars/ounce [47][51]. - Inventory: As of this Friday, the COMEX silver inventory was 10709.71 tons [61]. - Funding: As of the latest reporting period this week, the net position of COMEX silver managed funds was 7,766 lots, with long positions of 12,840 lots and short positions of 5,074 lots. The total position of major foreign silver ETF funds was 25,750.02 tons [64][67]. 3.4. US Interest Rates and Liquidity - Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: The total assets of the Federal Reserve this week were 66,504.63 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.446 billion US dollars from last week. There were changes in various items on the asset and liability sides [70]. - Federal Reserve Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve's main interest rates and the 10Y - 1Y term premium are presented in relevant charts [75]. 3.5. US Macroeconomic Data - GDP: The year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter data of US GDP are presented in relevant charts [80]. - CPI: The actual and predicted values of US CPI and core CPI, as well as the year - on - year pull of CPI sub - items, are presented in relevant charts [83]. - PPI: The year - on - year and month - on - month data of US PPI and core PPI, as well as the year - on - year and month - on - month sub - items of PPI, are presented in relevant charts [86]. - PMI: The US ISM - PMI manufacturing index and manufacturing PMI sub - items are presented in relevant charts [88]. - Housing: Data on US new private housing construction, new housing sales, and the S&P/CS home price index year - on - year are presented in relevant charts [91]. - Employment: Data on US non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and non - farm payroll sub - items are presented in relevant charts and tables [92][94]. - Personal Income: Data on the average hourly wage of US non - farm enterprise employees and the year - on - year change of personal disposable income are presented in relevant charts [97]. 3.6. Global Liquidity Tracking - Interest Rates of Major Economies: The interest rates of major economies and their weekly changes are presented in relevant charts [102][105]. - Exchange Rates of Major Economies: The weekly changes in the exchange rates of major economies against the RMB and the US dollar are presented in relevant charts [107]. - Global Stock Indexes: The weekly changes in global stock indexes, including those of developed and developing countries, are presented in relevant charts [113]. - US and European Stock Market Sectors: The weekly changes in US S&P 500 sectors and European SPEUROPL10 sectors are presented in relevant charts [115].