镍周报：矿端偏紧延续，镍价维持震荡运行-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market remains tight at the mining end, with nickel prices expected to fluctuate. Although the supply - demand situation of nickel has improved, short - term geopolitical conflicts pose risks, and the high inventory level restricts price upward movement. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the price range [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: The nickel ore market is driven by "supply disturbances + policy disturbances". Philippine nickel ore prices have risen significantly due to rainfall and increased external demand, but downstream smelters are cautious in purchasing. In Indonesia, domestic trade ore prices continue to strengthen, and the logistics disturbances persist at the end of the rainy season [12]. - Nickel iron: High - nickel pig iron prices are strong. As of Friday, the average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose to 1094.5 yuan/nickel point. The price is supported by rising nickel ore prices, and downstream demand has increased, driving up the market price [12]. - Intermediate products: MHP supply is restricted due to the landslide of the IMIP tailings dam and the unapproved IUI. The coefficient price has increased slightly. High - grade nickel matte remains in tight balance, with limited supply and strong seller price support. Sulfur prices are rising, strengthening cost support [12]. - Refined nickel: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly this week. As of March 13, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel closed at 136,930 yuan/ton, down 0.15% week - on - week. Spot transactions were weak, and the premium was stable. The macro - economic policy is positive, but the short - term interest rate cut expectation of the Federal Reserve is cautious. The overseas LME inventory is basically flat, and the domestic social inventory has increased by about 3,000 tons to about 87,000 tons. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the Shanghai nickel price range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton and the LME 3M contract range of 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to trade within the range [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Price trend: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. As of March 13, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel closed at 136,930 yuan/ton, down 0.15% week - on - week [17]. - Premium: The premium of imported nickel remained stable at a low level, indicating a loose spot market [20]. - Price relationship: Nickel iron prices were strong, and the premium of refined nickel over nickel iron was further repaired. The price of nickel sulfate remained stable following the nickel price [25]. 3.3 Cost Side - Philippine nickel ore: The port departure volume of Philippine nickel ore is at a seasonal low. The domestic nickel ore port inventory has been decreasing, reaching 8.5834 million tons as of March 13, a 7.1% decrease from last week. Nickel ore prices are strong, with the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia rising to 69.7 US dollars/ton and the price of wet - process ore rising to 25 US dollars/ton [30][32][35]. - Nickel iron production: In February, Indonesia's nickel iron production decreased by 15,000 tons to 124,000 tons month - on - month, and domestic nickel iron production remained at a low level of 21,000 tons [38]. - Intermediate products: In February, Indonesia's MHP and nickel matte production remained at a high level, with MHP production at 39,000 tons and nickel matte production at 41,000 tons. The coefficient price of intermediate products remained at a high level [42][45]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - Production: In February 2026, the national refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons compared with December 2025 [52]. - Demand: In February 2026, domestic stainless steel production was 2.3444 million tons, a decrease of 687,700 tons from January. This week, the inventory level decreased slightly by 8,693 tons to 1.086 million tons [55]. - Import and export: Global refined nickel inventory continues to increase, mainly in domestic social inventory. As of March 13, the Shanghai bonded area inventory was about 2,200 tons, unchanged from last week, and the domestic social inventory was about 87,000 tons, an increase of about 3,000 tons from last week [61]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Supply: The supply of nickel sulfate remained stable [66]. - Demand: The demand for nickel sulfate is at a seasonal high [69]. - Profit margin: The production profit margin of nickel sulfate fluctuates around the break - even point [72]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a detailed supply - demand balance table from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and inventory data of various nickel products. The global primary nickel supply exceeds demand, and the supply - demand gap and its proportion are increasing. The supply - demand gap of refined nickel also shows an increasing trend in general, and the global refined nickel inventory is on the rise [75].