玻璃周报：地缘风险抬升成本，市场静待旺季需求-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Glass Market - The tension in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, putting pressure on profits in all sectors and providing strong cost - side support for the glass market. - With the resumption of work by downstream and deep - processing enterprises, market demand has slightly recovered, and the overall trading activity has increased. Although the industry still faces de - stocking pressure, the restocking sentiment of downstream enterprises has improved. - It is expected that the float glass market will maintain a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period and the inventory changes in major production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1060 - 1200 yuan/ton [12][13]. Soda Ash Market - Tightening Middle East geopolitical situation has led to higher international oil prices, which in turn has pushed up the price center of coal - chemical and soda ash - related products. - On the supply side, soda ash enterprises maintain stable overall operation and high device loads, with relatively abundant market supply. - In terms of demand, although market wait - and - see sentiment has increased after the new round of price implementation in some areas, the sales rate of glass enterprises has significantly increased, and there is still strong rigid demand for raw material replenishment. Most soda ash manufacturers have basically filled their orders for this month, and the short - term price - holding intention is strong. - It is expected that the soda ash market will continue a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term. Focus should be on the release rhythm of actual demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional peak season and the inventory changes of enterprises in the main production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1180 - 1350 yuan/ton [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of March 13, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1113 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 58 yuan/ton; the basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton. - Cost and Profit: The profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 106.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal was - 39.38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.29 yuan/ton. - Supply: As of March 13, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.69 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the number of operating production lines was 210, an increase of 1 from the previous week, with an operating rate of 71.05%. - Demand: In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In February 2026, the production and sales data of automobiles were 167.20/180.50 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 20.49%/15.20%; from January to February, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 412.20/415.20 million vehicles. - Inventory: As of March 13, 2026, the inventory in national float glass factories was 7584.9 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 378.80 million heavy boxes; the inventory in factories in the Shahe area was 535.6 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 52.64 million heavy boxes [12]. 3.1.2. Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of March 13, 2026, the basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton. - Glass Inter - month Spread: As of March 13, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread was 169 yuan/ton (+1), the 05 - 09 spread was - 114 yuan/ton (-4), the 09 - 01 spread was - 55 yuan/ton (+3), and the open interest reached 1.5182 million lots [17][20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: The profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 106.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal was - 39.38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.29 yuan/ton [26][29]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: As of March 13, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.69 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the number of operating production lines was 210, an increase of 1 from the previous week, with an operating rate of 71.05%. - Glass Demand: As of January 30, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 6.35 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.95 days; as of March 13, 2026, the operating rate of Low - e glass was 33.70%, a week - on - week increase of 14.40%. In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In February 2026, the production and sales data of automobiles were 167.20/180.50 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 20.49%/15.20%; from January to February, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 412.20/415.20 million vehicles [33][36][39][42]. 3.1.5. Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the inventory in national float glass factories was 7584.9 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 378.80 million heavy boxes; the inventory in factories in the Shahe area was 535.6 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 52.64 million heavy boxes [46]. Soda Ash Report 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of March 13, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1236 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the basis was - 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 94.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60.45 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 156.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton. - Supply: As of March 13, 2026, the weekly production of soda ash was 80.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87%. The production of heavy soda ash was 42.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40 tons; the production of light soda ash was 38.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons. - Demand: As of March 13, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.69 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the number of operating production lines was 210, an increase of 1 from the previous week, with an operating rate of 71.05%. - Inventory: As of March 13, 2026, the inventory in soda ash factories was 193.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 tons; the available inventory days were 14.54 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash in factories was 91.81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 yuan/ton; the inventory of light soda ash in factories was 101.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.37 yuan/ton [56]. 3.2.2. Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of March 13, 2026, the basis was - 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: As of March 13, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread was 106 yuan/ton (+11), the 05 - 09 spread was - 63 yuan/ton (-4), the 09 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton (-7), and the open interest reached 1.5182 million lots [61][64]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 94.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60.45 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 156.5 yuan/ton. - Raw Material Cost: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2094 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: As of March 13, 2026, the weekly production of soda ash was 80.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87%. The production of heavy soda ash was 42.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40 tons; the production of light soda ash was 38.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons. - Soda Ash Demand: As of March 13, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.69 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the number of operating production lines was 210, an increase of 1 from the previous week, with an operating rate of 71.05% [81][84][87]. 3.2.5. Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the inventory in soda ash factories was 193.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 tons; the available inventory days were 14.54 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash in factories was 91.81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 yuan/ton; the inventory of light soda ash in factories was 101.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.37 yuan/ton [91][94].