鸡蛋周报：近端反弹抛空-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report maintains the idea of short - selling on rallies in the near - term for egg futures. Although the egg production capacity shows a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of supply reduction slows down due to market expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, with a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, leading to an over - valued near - month futures contract. Attention should be paid to the support brought by rising costs in the long - term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, domestic egg prices rose in a volatile manner. At the beginning of the week, prices dropped to a low level, leading to increased replenishment by traders and downstream purchases. Cost increases boosted market confidence, but sufficient supply and slower post - price - increase sales limited the price increase. The number of culled chickens remained low, and the chicken age increased. The cost increase led to more severe losses in egg farming. The prices of large - sized eggs in major production areas and sales areas all increased. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand may improve slightly, and egg prices are expected to rise slightly next week [11]. - Chick Rearing and Culling: In February, the number of chicks reared was 86.6 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The chick price increase also indicates an improvement in sentiment. Due to young chicken age and positive expectations for future egg prices, the number of culled chickens after the Spring Festival was low, the price of culled chickens was high, and the chicken age rose to 505 days [11]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of February, the inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The inventory level was relatively high. It is expected that the inventory will peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.304 billion by July, a decrease of 3.4%, but the absolute supply is still high [11]. - Demand: Downstream demand was tepid, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm was low. As egg prices dropped to a low level, downstream replenishment may increase, and with the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the purchase volume is expected to rise [11]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies for the near - term. For the long - term, pay attention to the support brought by rising costs. The recommended strategy is to short - sell on rallies for contracts from May to July, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 3 - 4 months. After the spot price realizes the expected increase, consider reverse arbitrage [11][13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: Last week, domestic egg prices rose in a volatile manner. The prices of large - sized eggs in major production areas and sales areas increased. The overall supply was sufficient, small - sized eggs were slightly in short supply, inventory was low, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand may improve slightly, and egg prices are expected to rise slightly next week [20]. - Basis and Spread: After the Chinese New Year, the spot price dropped significantly, and the basis fell to a relatively low level. The monthly spread was mainly in a short - term oscillation [23]. - Culled Chicken Price: Although egg farming was in a loss after the Spring Festival, egg prices were relatively stable. Farmers were confident about the future and were reluctant to sell culled chickens, leading to an increase in the price of culled chickens and the chicken age [26]. - Chick and Pullet Price: The chick price increased month - on - month, indicating an improvement in sentiment [33]. 3.3. Supply Side - Egg Chicken Rearing: In February, the number of chicks reared was 86.6 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The chick price increase also indicates an improvement in sentiment [33]. - Culled Chicken Sales: Due to young chicken age and positive expectations for future egg prices, the number of culled chickens after the Spring Festival was low, the price of culled chickens was high, and the chicken age rose to 505 days [36]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of February, the inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The inventory level was relatively high. It is expected that the inventory will peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.304 billion by July, a decrease of 3.4%, but the absolute supply is still high [38][41]. 3.4. Demand Side Downstream demand was tepid, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm was low. As egg prices dropped to a low level, downstream replenishment may increase, and with the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the purchase volume is expected to rise [46]. 3.5. Cost and Profit The cost was lower year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The egg - farming profit was neutral, with small losses in the off - season [51]. 3.6. Inventory Side After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased significantly, but it was neutral compared to the same period seasonally [56].