氧化铝周报：矿端成本上行，价格震荡走强-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost increase in the mining end drives the rebound of bauxite prices, and the core depends on the persistence of the conflict between the US and Iran. The current bauxite price has reached the cost of small and medium - sized mines in Guinea, and attention should be paid to the price - support policies launched by the Guinean government. - In the short term, the increase in maintenance in the alumina smelting end leads to a tightening of supply, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. If the market sentiment drives up the futures price due to geopolitical risks, short positions can be established at high levels. The long - term oversupply pattern and the increase in warehouse receipt registration will continue to put pressure on the market price. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinean ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict. [12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment - Futures Price: As of 3:00 pm on March 13, the alumina index rose 4.11% to 2962 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 0.8 million lots to 4.5 million lots. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing global energy and shipping costs, driving up the CIF price of bauxite this week. The upward shift of cost support has led to the rebound of alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2640 yuan/ton, at a discount of 322 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 20 yuan/ton. - Spot Price: This week, alumina spot prices in various regions continued to rebound. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 15 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. Some production capacity maintenance continued, and the premium of the futures market led to an increase in the demand for delivery, resulting in a short - term tightening of the circulating spot. - Inventory: This week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 5.72 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 26,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, decreased by 13,000 tons, and increased by 45,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 36,800 tons to 374,000 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 430,200 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from last week. [11] 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Price: This week, alumina spot prices in various regions continued to rebound. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 15 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. Some production capacity maintenance continued, and the premium of the futures market led to an increase in the demand for delivery, resulting in a short - term tightening of the circulating spot. [20] - Futures Price and Basis: As of 3:00 pm on March 13, the alumina index rose 4.11% to 2962 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 0.8 million lots to 4.5 million lots. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing global energy and shipping costs, driving up the CIF price of bauxite this week. The upward shift of cost support has led to the rebound of alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2640 yuan/ton, at a discount of 322 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 20 yuan/ton. [23] - Bauxite Price: For domestic mines, prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. For imported mines, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 62 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australian bauxite increased by 2 US dollars/ton to 57 US dollars/ton. The rebound of bauxite prices this week was mainly due to cost increases. The US - Iran conflict pushed up energy and shipping costs, and the new "labor - management agreement" in Guinea led to a general increase in miners' salaries. If oil prices and shipping costs remain high, miners may have difficulty passing on the new costs to downstream, potentially leading to the shutdown of some mines. In addition, the market传言 that the Guinean government will introduce policies to restrict ore exports to support prices, but the government has not made a clear statement. [28] 3.3 Supply Side - Bauxite Production: In February 2026, China's bauxite production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.92%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16%. - Bauxite Import: In December 2025, China imported 14.67 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The total import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48%. In December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%. The cumulative import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 149.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.32%. In December 2025, China imported 2.41 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 28.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 29.40%. The cumulative import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 37.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. - Bauxite Inventory: In February, China's bauxite inventory increased by 960,000 tons, and the total inventory reached 58.86 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years, with sufficient enterprise ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 70,000 tons, and that in Henan increased by 70,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong and Guangxi. - Alumina Production: In February 2026, alumina production was 7.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.77% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%. The cumulative production in the first two months of 2026 was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.52%. As of March 13, 2026, the weekly alumina production was 1.785 million tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons from last week. - Alumina Plant Profit: The rebound of alumina spot prices has led to a recovery of alumina plant profits. According to the alumina spot price on March 13, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic mines, the current production profit can reach 120 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong are 170 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton respectively. The cost of transporting imported ores from ports for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, using overseas ores in Shanxi results in a loss of 30 yuan/ton, while in Henan, it results in a profit of 60 yuan/ton. - Alumina Import and Export: In December 2025, the net import of alumina was 21,900 tons. The opening of the import window in the previous period drove the continuation of monthly net imports. Among them, the import volume decreased from 232,000 tons in the previous month to 228,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 168,000 tons to 210,000 tons. The total net export in the first twelve months of 2025 was 1.35 million tons. As of March 13, the weekly FOB price in Australia increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 304 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 36 yuan/ton. The stronger rebound of domestic alumina prices led to a slight opening of the import window. - Overseas Alumina Production: In February 2026, overseas alumina production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%. The cumulative production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. [32][34][36][38][41][43][44][47][49][51][53] 3.4 Demand Side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.71%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 7.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.25%. - Electrolytic Aluminum Operation: In February 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.13% to 97.08% in February. [58][61] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2026 (estimated), showing data on alumina supply and demand differences, total demand, total supply, net exports, exports, imports, electrolytic aluminum consumption of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity for each month. [64] 3.6 Inventory - Alumina Social Inventory: This week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 5.72 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 26,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, decreased by 13,000 tons, and increased by 45,000 tons respectively. - Alumina Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Warehouse Inventory: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 36,800 tons to 374,000 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 430,200 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from last week. [69][71]