尿素周报：逢高空配维持-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is to maintain short - selling on rallies [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although there are still positive expectations for downstream demand, considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive potential in terms of quotas. The fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so the unilateral strategy is to maintain short - selling on rallies. In terms of arbitrage, it is advisable to go long on the May - September spread when the price is low [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - Market Trend: The report presents the urea index chart, showing the price trend from 2025 - 01 - 01 to 2026 - 03 - 11 [13][14] - Factor Assessment and Strategy: - Supply: The supply is strong in terms of the operating rate, and there is no expectation of production cuts due to profit support. In terms of trade flow, the current demand in India is good, and there are still expectations for export policies. The overall assessment of supply is neutral [16] - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to improve in March, with a neutral - to - bullish assessment [16] - Inventory: The marginal impact of port inventory is small, and downstream rigid - demand procurement is cautious in the short term. The overall assessment of inventory is neutral - to - bearish [16] - Cost: The thermal coal is not in a strong period, and the oil and gas market maintains a volatile trend with limited upward space. The overall assessment of cost is neutral [16] - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to maintain short - selling on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the May - September spread when the price is low [16] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Basis and Spot Price: The report shows the basis seasonality chart and the Shandong urea spot market price chart, covering multiple years [19] - Price Spreads: It presents the urea primary - secondary spread chart and the urea term structure chart [21] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The report includes charts of the main - contract open interest, trading volume, weighted open interest, and weighted trading volume of urea [26][27] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: It shows the profit charts of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - head production of urea from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][35] - Urea Inventory: The report presents the enterprise inventory, port inventory, and warehouse receipt charts of urea, as well as the changes in warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and the relationship between port inventory and export volume [38][40][46] 3.4 Supply Side - Urea Supply: It shows the daily output of urea sample enterprises and the import volume of urea [50][51] - Urea Operating Rate: The report presents the overall operating rate, gas - head operating rate, device maintenance loss volume, main - producing area enterprise advance orders, and monthly output of urea [53][55][57] 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption End: It shows the global fertilizer index and the downstream demand proportion chart [62] - Compound Fertilizer: The report presents the operating rate, production profit, and price ratio of urea to compound fertilizer [64][65] - Nitrogen Source Price Ratio: It shows the price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate [68] - Melamine: The report presents the operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine [70][73] - Terminal Demand: It shows the export volume of plywood, housing start - completion data, and 5 - day average trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [78][83] - External Market Price: It presents the FOB price of China, the price differences between China FOB and FOB Iran, FOB US Gulf, and CFR Brazil [87] - Export: The report shows the export volume, export profit, and sea freight of urea, as well as the export volumes of ammonium sulfate, diammonium phosphate, and monoammonium phosphate [90][92][96] 3.6 Options - Related - Urea Options: The report presents the open interest, trading volume, open - interest PCR, trading - volume PCR, and volatility of urea options [103][105][109] 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - Urea Industry Chain: It shows the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and industry chain characteristics [114][116][118] - Fertilizer Demand Seasonality: The report summarizes the fertilizer demand seasonality of different regions in China and major countries around the world, including the demand situation of different crops in different months and the overall demand trend [121][122][123]