蛋白粕周报：蛋白粕价格宽幅波动，短线观望-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the short - term crude oil price fluctuates sharply, driving the protein meal price to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: China's soybean imports in February were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. The latest estimates of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production by AgRural and StoneX were 178 million tons and 177.8 million tons respectively, both lower than the previous forecasts. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons in the current - year cumulative exports. The US exported 80,000 tons of soybeans to China during the week, and the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 6, the domestic sample soybean arrivals in 2026 were 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the February forecast [10]. - Fundamental Assessment: The multi - empty scores of various indicators are as follows: the multi - empty score of the US soybean 5 - 7 spread is 0; the soybean import crushing profit is +1; the rapeseed import cost is - 1; the soybean and rapeseed meal spread is 0; the international soybean supply is +0.5; the domestic supply is - 0.5; the domestic demand is +1; and other factors (geopolitical crisis) are +1. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [11]. - Trading Strategy Suggestion: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The document provides the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [21][22]. - Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spreads of soybean meal 5 - 9 and rapeseed meal 5 - 9 from 2022 to 2026 are presented [27][28]. - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: The spreads between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May and soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September from 2022 to 2026 are shown [30][31]. 3.3. Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: It includes the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39]. - Weather Conditions: The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina are compared with the same - period averages. The precipitation and temperature anomalies in major soybean - producing areas are also provided [42][44][45]. - US Soybean Export Progress: It shows the current - market - year and next - market - year cumulative signing volumes, the current - market - year and next - market - year exports to China, and the US soybean export progress from 2021 to 2026. The monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in China are also presented [53][54][56]. - China's Oil Mill Pressing Situation: The soybean and rapeseed pressing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [62][63]. - Brazilian Soybean Export Situation: The monthly export volumes and exports to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are presented. The weekly and cumulative shipments of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 are also provided [65][66][68]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [76][77]. - Protein Meal Inventory: The inventories of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [79][80]. - Protein Meal Pressing Profit: The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 are shown [82][83]. 3.5. Demand Side - Protein Meal Demand: The cumulative sales volume and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [86]. - Breeding Profit: The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 are shown [88][89].