铜周报：地缘打压情绪，供需边际改善-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply and demand showing marginal improvement. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper is 98,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and that for LME copper 3M is 12,400 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate is at a historical low, and the processing fee of blister copper has declined month - on - month. The cold material supply has tightened marginally. The Bingham Canyon Mine in the US owned by Rio Tinto suspended operations after an accident, with an annual output of about 125,000 tons in 2025 [11]. - Demand: Copper prices have moved down in a volatile manner. In the first half of the week, downstream buyers were active, but sentiment cooled as the market atmosphere weakened. The operating rate of copper processing enterprises continued to rise, approaching the same - period level of previous years. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has narrowed, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod production has rebounded from a low level [12]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons to 1.283 million tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8,000 tons to 433,000 tons, the LME inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 312,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 537,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 5,000 tons. The spot premium in the East China region on Friday was 85 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME Cash/3M discount widened to 102.7 US dollars/ton [13]. - Import and Export: The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper has changed from a loss to a small profit, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded. From January to February 2026, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China was 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: Copper prices have moved down in a volatile manner. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.73% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.04% to 12,735 US dollars/ton [22]. - Spot Price: The report provides the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper at different times [24]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic copper price has moved down in a volatile manner, and the basis has rebounded. The spot copper in the East China region on Friday had a premium of 85 yuan/ton over the futures price. The LME inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M discount widened to 102.7 US dollars/ton. The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper has changed from a loss to a small profit, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded [27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough - smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate has reached a new low, at - 60.4 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has strengthened, still contributing positively to copper smelting revenue [35]. - Import - Export Ratio: The offshore RMB has depreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper has increased [38]. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import of copper has changed from a loss to a small profit [41]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons to 1.283 million tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to before the holiday. The increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory mainly came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased month - on - month. The number of copper warrants decreased by 4,024 to 315,063 tons. The LME inventory increased, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses, and the European inventory decreased. The proportion of cancelled warrants increased slightly [44][47][50]. 3.4 Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in February 2026 decreased by about 37,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to rebound significantly in March, being at a relatively high historical level. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, the refined copper output in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative annual output was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [55]. - Import and Export Situation: From January to February 2026, China's copper ore import volume was 2.624 million tons and 2.31 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. From January to February 2026, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China was 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. In December 2025, China imported 61,000 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. In December 2025, China's refined copper import volume was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 3.828 million tons, with a net import volume of 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. In December 2025, China exported 96,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The domestic spot copper feed - processing export remained profitable. In December 2025, China's recycled copper import volume was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [58][61][64][70][73]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption Structure: Globally, the consumption structure of electrolytic copper is 46% for power, 15% for home appliances, 11% for transportation, 9% for construction, 9% for mechanical electronics, and 10% for others. In China, it is 26% for construction, 23% for equipment, 12% for industry, 13% for transportation, 17% for infrastructure, and 9% for others [77]. - PMI: In February, China's official manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, while the RatingDog comprehensive PMI increased significantly, showing a differentiated performance in manufacturing prosperity. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was also differentiated, with improvement in Japan, the Eurozone, and India, and weakening in the US and the UK [80]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: In December 2025, the output of cold storage, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment in the copper downstream industries increased year - on - year, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased year - on - year, while that of cold storage, color TVs, and AC motors decreased [83]. - Real Estate Data: In December 2025, the domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreasing year - on - year, and the decline rate slowed down. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in December [85]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate: In February, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises weakened seasonally and is expected to rebound significantly in March; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained at a low level and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises weakened in February and is expected to recover in March, approaching the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound seasonally in March, but lower than the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound in March, higher than the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises declined slightly in February and is expected to increase in March, with a significantly better operating situation than the same - period level of last year. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production continued to rise; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production rebounded slightly but remained at a low level. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable continued to rise; the operating rate of copper strip rebounded [88][92][95][98][103][106]. - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed compared to last week, and the refined - scrap price difference on Friday was 475 yuan/ton [111]. 3.6 Capital Side - Shanghai Copper Position: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 824 to 1,158,912 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2603 contract was 36,980 lots (bilateral) [116]. - Foreign Fund Position: As of March 10, the CFTC fund position remained net long, and the net long ratio declined to 20.4%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of March 6) [119].