棉花周报：下游开机情况尚可，回调尝试买入-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The March USDA monthly supply and demand report is neutral. Since March, the operation of the domestic downstream textile industry chain has been satisfactory. The prices of finished cotton yarn and its substitute viscose staple fiber have been gradually rising. Currently, the fundamentals are favorable. Affected by crude oil prices and the overall commodity market in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices are fluctuating widely at a high level. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: The ICAC predicts that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season will decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons. From February 26 to March 5, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with cumulative exports of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons. The March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production is 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast in March is 3.03 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast, with export estimates remaining the same and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, unchanged. Brazil's production forecast increases by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remains at 5.12 million tons; China's production is raised by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [9]. - Viewpoints and Strategies: The March USDA monthly supply and demand report is neutral. The domestic downstream textile industry chain has been operating well since March. The prices of finished cotton yarn and viscose staple fiber are rising. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis is 1,293 yuan/ton, with a positive score of +1, indicating a strengthening basis. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, showing little change. The spinning immediate profit is - 1,811 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, indicating a decrease in profit. The Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is 300 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, suggesting a weakening of the producing - area price. The FC index M 1% is 12,647 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty is 13,756 yuan/ton, with a score of - 0.5, indicating that the domestic valuation is higher than the international market. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on dips. The core driving logic is the reduction of the new - year planting area combined with good macro - expectations [11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: The report shows the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract from 2022 to 2026 [24]. - Import Profit: It presents the 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty internal - external spreads from 2022 to 2026 [26]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread: It shows the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [28]. - Production - Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit: It shows the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit from 2022 to 2026 [30]. - US Cotton Monthly Spread: It shows the trends of the US cotton 5 - 7 and 7 - 12 contract spreads [32]. - External Market Spread: It shows the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA index 1% tariff from 2022 to 2026 [34]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production: It shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase price [38]. - Cotton Import Volume: It shows the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton from 2021 to 2026 [40]. - US Export Contract Quantity to China: It shows the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China from 2021 to 2026 [43]. - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: It shows the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn from 2021 to 2026 [45]. - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills from 2022 to 2026 [48]. - National Sales Progress: It shows the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City from 2022 to 2026 [51]. - Cotton Inventory: It shows the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory from 2022 to 2026 [53]. - Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory: It shows the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills from 2022 to 2026 [55]. 3.4. International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: It shows the proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate from 2022 to 2026 [59]. - US Production Situation: It shows the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton from 2021 to 2026 [61]. - US Yield and Planting Area: It shows the yield forecast and planting area of US cotton [64]. - US Export Contract Progress: It shows the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of US cotton from 2021 to 2026 [68]. - US Export Shipment Volume: It shows the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton from 2021 to 2026 [70]. - US Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: It shows the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [71]. - Brazil Yield and Planting Area: It shows the planting area and yield of Brazilian cotton [73]. - Brazil Export Volume: It shows the export volume forecast and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton [77]. - Brazil Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: It shows the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [80]. - India Yield and Planting Area: It shows the planting area and yield of Indian cotton [82]. - India Consumption and Import - Export: It shows the consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [87][88].