生猪周报：反弹抛空-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pig market shows a significant oversupply, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable, and the near - end of the futures market should be sold on rebounds, while the far - end should be observed due to high premium [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The supply pressure was obvious, demand was weak, and the overall market was oversupplied. After continuous price cuts, farmers showed resistance, which may lead to a small - scale rebound in the north and south markets, but the price increase space is limited, and pig prices may still be under pressure [11]. - Supply Side: The official data shows that the inventory of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease from the peak. The theoretical supply in the first half of this year is still large, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half but the amplitude may be limited. The de - stocking progress of sows has slowed down. The theoretical出栏 volume remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. The short - term supply is still in obvious excess [11]. - Demand Side: The terminal market shows no sign of improvement, and the secondary fattening is cautious, so the demand has little support for the market [11]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term spot may maintain a weakly stable trend. The near - end of the futures market maintains a premium structure and should be sold on rebounds; the far - end has the expectation of capacity de - stocking, but the upward drive of the spot is insufficient, so it is recommended to observe. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds for contracts 05 - 07 and observe for others, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 months [11][13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price Trend: Last week, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The supply pressure was obvious, and the market was oversupplied. After continuous price cuts, there may be a small - scale rebound, but the price increase space is limited [22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price dropped significantly after the Spring Festival, and the futures market changed to a premium structure, with the basis turning negative. The weakness of the spot led to a reverse spread in the monthly spread [25]. - Prices of Piglets and Sows: Not specifically summarized in the text, but there are relevant price trend charts [27][29]. 3.3. Supply Side - Breeding Sows and Changes: The inventory of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease from the peak. The de - stocking progress has slowed down, with a month - on - month increase of 0.65% and 0.73% in January and February respectively according to Yongyi data [34]. - Inventory and Slaughter: The theoretical出栏 volume remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is not high, indicating that the current epidemic is generally controllable; the proportion of large pigs has decreased seasonally and is lower year - on - year, indicating that the current inventory of large pigs is not high [43][46]. - Transaction and Average Weight after Slaughter: The short - term supply is still in obvious excess, as the weight is still increasing month - on - month despite price drops and breeding losses after the Spring Festival [50]. 3.4. Demand Side - The terminal market shows no sign of improvement, and the secondary fattening is cautious, so the demand has little support for the market [59]. 3.5. Cost and Profit - The breeding cost is generally low, but the cost of purchasing piglets has increased. After the Spring Festival, pig prices dropped significantly, and breeding has turned into a loss, which is slightly lower in seasonal performance [70]. 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory has increased seasonally and is in a state of passive inventory accumulation month - on - month [75].