PVC周报：乙烯制预期减产，利润大幅修复-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has significantly recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production is relatively low, and the current valuation is neutral. There are expectations of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and the overall load in March is expected to decline. Although the domestic demand is under pressure, overseas demand may increase due to raw material shortages, and the market is expected to turn to destocking in March. In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the market will mainly show a rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,910 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 205 yuan; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 735 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has significantly recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production is relatively low, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 81.4%, a 0.2% increase month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 82.9%, a 2.3% increase month - on - month; the ethylene method is 77.6%, a 4.6% decrease month - on - month. In March, some enterprises may start spring maintenance, and with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the ethylene - based production load is expected to further decline, and the overall load is expected to decline [11]. - Demand: The export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term effect of rush - exporting has declined. However, due to the lack of raw materials in Asia, the load reduction in Northeast Asia may bring export growth opportunities. The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 38%, a 5% increase month - on - month; the load of films is 60%, a 13% increase month - on - month; the load of profiles is 30%, a 2.6% increase month - on - month; the overall downstream load is 39.3%, a 3.5% increase month - on - month. The pre - sales volume of PVC last week was 1.09 million tons, a 200,000 - ton increase week - on - week [11]. - Inventory: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 377,000 tons, a 81,000 - ton reduction week - on - week; the social inventory was 1.407 million tons, a 3,000 - ton increase week - on - week; the overall inventory was 1.784 million tons, a 78,000 - ton reduction week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally. It is expected that the overall load in March will decline, and overseas exports are expected to be supported by the shortage of ethylene raw materials in Northeast Asia, and the market is expected to turn to destocking in March [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report provides multiple charts, including the PVC term structure, the price of PVC East China SG - 5, the PVC spot basis, the 5 - 9 spread of PVC, the active contract positions and trading volume of PVC, and the total positions and trading volume of PVC, to show the market conditions of PVC futures and spot [15][18][21][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Inventory: The in - factory inventory is accelerating destocking, and the social inventory is stable. The report presents multiple charts to show the in - factory inventory of calcium carbide - based PVC, the social inventory of PVC, the total inventory of in - factory and social, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts [32][33][40]. - Profit: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, the profit of ethylene - based PVC, and the profit of Inner Mongolia's calcium carbide [42]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium Carbide: The price of calcium carbide has rebounded. The report shows the price, inventory, and start - up rate of calcium carbide through charts [48][51][53]. - Other Raw Materials: The price of semi - coke has declined, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have rebounded. The report presents the market prices of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene through charts [54][55]. 3.5 Supply Side - Capacity and Production: The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025 through charts and tables [59][61][63]. - Start - up Rate: The PVC start - up rate remains at a high level, the ethylene - based production load has begun to decline, and the calcium carbide - based production load has increased. The report presents the start - up rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume of PVC through charts [66][70][71]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering. The report shows the start - up rates of PVC films, profiles, pipes, and the overall downstream through charts [75][77][80][81]. - Export and Pre - sales: The report shows the export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume of PVC through charts [82][84][86]. - Related Indicators: The report also shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area through a chart [88].