铁矿石周报：结构性问题扰动，矿价宽幅震荡-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level with a marginal decline. The BHP negotiation issue intensifies the expectation of resource structural tension. Overseas, the Middle - East conflict affects the commodity market, with high uncertainty in the situation. The continuation of the conflict may increase freight costs and slightly disrupt the supply side. Overall, affected by the negotiation issue and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices fluctuate widely. The recent fluctuation range has increased, and attention should be paid to risk control, as well as the progress of subsequent negotiations and the development of the geopolitical situation [11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The latest global iron ore shipping volume was 2,897.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 442.9 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,342.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 348.5 tons. Australia's shipping volume was 1,753.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 195.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,465.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 105.1 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 589.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 153.3 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,697.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 467.5 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,609.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 463.0 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 221.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points; the blast furnace operating rate was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 percentage points [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17,947.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.49 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 332.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.35 tons [11]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 123 yuan/ton, a change of +7.0 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 152 yuan/ton, a change of +20.0 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 208 yuan/ton, a change of +21.0 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 14.5 yuan/ton, a change of +6.5 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.45%, a change of +0.36 percentage points compared with the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.91%, a change of +0.21 percentage points compared with the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.64%, a change of - 0.56 percentage points compared with the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of +20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of +40 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, a week - on - week change of +3.03 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 9.53 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17,187.52 tons, a week - on - week change of +69.66 tons. The pellet inventory was 383.2 tons, a week - on - week change of +18.25 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1,664.3 tons, a week - on - week change of +41.89 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1,966.48 tons, a week - on - week change of - 26.58 tons. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 8,328.78 tons, a week - on - week change of +245.29 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 5,105 tons, a week - on - week change of - 215.40 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8,929.1 tons, a week - on - week change of - 82.47 tons [35][38][41][46]. 3.4. Supply Side - Shipping Volume: The latest shipping volume from Australia to China through 19 ports was 1,407.7 tons, a week - on - week change of - 101.5 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 574.5 tons, a week - on - week change of - 163.2 tons. Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 545.9 tons, a week - on - week change of - 3.5 tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 427.9 tons, a week - on - week change of - 24.3 tons. Vale's shipping volume was 387.1 tons, a week - on - week change of - 145.7 tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 257.6 tons, a week - on - week change of - 34.2 tons [51][54][57]. - Arrival Volume: The latest arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,609.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 463.0 tons. In December, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 2,192.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 292.36 tons [60]. - Domestic Mine: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 59%, a week - on - week change of +0.95 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 46.11 tons, a week - on - week change of +0.75 tons [66]. 3.5. Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal output was 221.2 tons, a week - on - week change of - 6.39 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a week - on - week change of - 2.4 percentage points. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 317.9 tons, a week - on - week change of +6.82 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 271.95 tons, a week - on - week change of - 8.9 tons [71][74]. 3.6. Basis As of March 13, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 18.68 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.25% [79].