双焦周报：原油情绪持续外溢，警惕能源属性加持下焦煤价格的阶段性脉冲可能-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is bullish due to the ongoing Iran - US conflict, high - fluctuating oil prices, and the spill - over of oil and gas and chemical market sentiment. Short - selling may not be appropriate until the Iran - US situation eases. It is advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and high - elasticity varieties [19]. - Although the fundamental support for a significant short - term price rebound of coking coal is insufficient, attention should be paid to the possible short - term upward pulse of coking coal prices due to the continuous spill - over of market sentiment, especially when combined with sudden safety production upgrades. In the long - term, the coking coal price is expected to rise, with a higher probability during the safety production month and consumption peak season from June to October [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review - Last week, the coking coal futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 60.5 yuan/ton or + 5.28%. The price was supported by the energy sentiment premium from high - level oil prices due to the Middle East situation. The price tested the support near 1100 yuan/ton and is approaching the long - term downward trend line. The support at 1100 yuan/ton and the resistance at 1250 yuan/ton should be monitored [14]. - The coke price also trended upwards, with a weekly increase of 47.5 yuan/ton or + 2.79%, mainly following the coking coal price. The support near 1600 - 1650 yuan/ton and the resistance near 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton should be watched [17]. - Weekly Key Points Summary - Spot Price and Basis: For coking coal, the prices of different types of coking coal showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The basis of some coking coal varieties showed a premium, while others showed a discount. For coke, the prices of Rizhao Port and Luliang remained stable, and both showed a discount to the futures [18]. - Position: The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the positions of the April and June contracts are significantly higher than normal, which may bring warehouse receipt pressure [18]. - Domestic Production: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased by 2.92 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output decreased by 0.40% year - on - year. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 3.18 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output increased by 9.40% year - on - year [18][74][76]. - Overseas Imports: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is at a high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian coking coal is - 265 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [18][79][82]. - Demand: The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants was basically flat, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.77%. The coking profit of independent coking plants was - 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.39 tons week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 3.03 pct. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The steel inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, but the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [18]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal in the country is 154.41 tons, and the demand is 149.16 tons (coke production conversion) and 142.81 tons (hot metal conversion). The supply - demand of coking coal is marginally loose. The estimated daily average demand for coke from hot metal is 106.18 tons, and the supply - demand of coke is also marginally loose [19][110]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased by 13.24 tons week - on - week, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory decreased by 0.31 tons week - on - week, also with different changes in different sectors [19][114]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price - For coking coal, as of March 13, 2026, the prices of different coal types showed different trends, such as the price of low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 20.1 yuan/ton, while the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal increased by 23 yuan/ton. For coke, the prices of Rizhao Port and Luliang remained stable [23][25][34]. - Basis and Spread - For coking coal, the basis of Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal was 85 yuan/ton, and the basis of Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal was - 28 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 99 yuan/ton, and it maintained a Contango structure. For coke, the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was - 12 yuan/ton, and the basis of Luliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke was - 27 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 74.5 yuan/ton, also maintaining a Contango structure [42][45][48][51]. 3.3. Position and Variety Ratio - Position - As of March 13, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal was 599,300 lots, a decrease of 83,000 lots week - on - week, but still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke was 42,100 lots, a decrease of 200 lots week - on - week. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the positions of the April and June contracts are significantly higher than normal [60][61]. - Variety Ratio - This week, JM/I increased by 0.01, HC/JM decreased by 0.09, indicating that coking coal was stronger than iron ore and finished products. Currently, JM/I is still at a low historical level, and the valuation of coking coal is relatively low compared to iron ore. J/I decreased by 0.04, HC/J decreased by 0.01, and JM/J increased by 0.02. Coke was slightly weaker than iron ore but slightly stronger than finished products. Currently, J/I is also at a low historical level, and the valuation of coke is relatively low compared to iron ore [66][69]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - Domestic Coking Coal Production - The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.7 tons, an increase of 2.92 tons week - on - week. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 23.08 tons, an increase of 3.18 tons week - on - week [74][76]. - Imported Coking Coal - The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is at a high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian coking coal is - 265 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, the cumulative imports of Mongolian, Russian, Canadian, and Australian coking coal showed different trends, while the import of US coking coal was stagnant due to tariffs [79][82][85][89]. - Coke Production - The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants was 110.90 tons, basically flat week - on - week. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the daily average coke output of independent coking plants was 63.90 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons week - on - week. The coking profit of independent coking plants was - 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [92][95]. - Downstream Steel Industry - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons week - on - week. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, an increase of 3.03 pct. The estimated profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil on the futures market were - 210 yuan/ton and - 162 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits continued to decline. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The steel inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, but the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [98][104][108]. 3.5. Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 13.24 tons week - on - week, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory decreased by 0.31 tons week - on - week, also with different changes in different sectors [114].