铅周报：再生开工偏低，现货压力较大-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently under pressure, with low recycling start - up rates and significant spot pressure. The lead price may decline further due to insufficient domestic demand for lead ingots and an increase in the concentration of short - selling positions. The subsequent situation of the recovery of recycling smelter start - up rates needs to be observed [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.30% to 16,586 yuan/ton last Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 141,800 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 4.5 to 1,933 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 173,000 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and recycled refined lead is 16,425 yuan/ton, with a flat refined - scrap price difference. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries is 9,925 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory is 67,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 12 was 77,700 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March 9. The domestic primary basis is - 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - consecutive contract is - 20 yuan/ton. The overseas structure shows that the LME lead ingot inventory is 284,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 4,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is - 47.22 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 137.1 US dollars/ton. The cross - market structure shows that the ex - exchange rate Shanghai - London ratio is 1.246, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is 511.55 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory is 39,000 tons, and the factory inventory is 468,000 tons, equivalent to 31.4 days. The lead concentrate import TC is - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC is 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary start - up rate is 61.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory is 29,000 tons. At the recycling end, the lead waste inventory is 102,000 tons, the recycling start - up rate is 23.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory is 19,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate is 71.68% [11]. - Market Outlook: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has slightly declined, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of primary smelting has回调 due to the silver price, the primary lead start - up rate is gradually recovering, and the primary factory inventory is declining. The visible inventory of lead waste continues to decline, the profit of recycled lead smelting is under great pressure, the start - up rate of recycled lead smelters has limited recovery, and the recycled factory inventory is declining. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, but procurement has not improved. The inventory of distributors in February has been well reduced, and the pressure on finished product inventory has been relieved. Currently, the lead ingot import window is wide open, the export of lead - acid batteries has decreased, and the overseas surplus of deliverable inventory flowing into the domestic market has a suppressing effect. Although the inventory reduction of battery finished products has improved, battery enterprises still have not carried out large - scale spot purchases. Insufficient domestic demand for lead ingots and an increase in the concentration of short - selling positions may lead to a further decline in lead prices [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - Import and Production Data: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrates was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In February 2026, China's lead concentrate production was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 9.7% and a month - on - month change of - 29.4%. From January to February, the total production of lead concentrates was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - Total Supply and Overseas Production: In December 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrates was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In December 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 275,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.15% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to December, the total production of lead ore was 2,958,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.16% [19]. - Inventory and Processing Fees: The lead concentrate port inventory is 39,000 tons, and the factory inventory is 468,000 tons, equivalent to 31.4 days. The lead concentrate import TC is - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC is 250 yuan/metal ton, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized [21][23]. - Smelting Start - up and Production: The primary start - up rate is 61.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory is 29,000 tons. In February 2025, China's primary lead production was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 17.1%. From January to February, the total production of primary lead ingots was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - Raw Materials and Production: At the recycling end, the lead waste inventory is 102,000 tons. The recycling start - up rate is 23.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory is 19,000 tons. In February 2025, China's recycled lead production was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.9% and a month - on - month change of - 40.4%. From January to February, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - Import and Total Supply: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate is 71.68%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - Battery Export: In December 2025, the net export quantity of lead - containing batteries was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, and the cumulative net export year - on - year change was - 13.06% [41]. - Inventory Changes: In February 2026, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 23.5 days to 23 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in distributors decreased from 40.74 days to 33.35 days [43]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly drags down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drives the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Lead Ingot Balance: In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61]. - Overseas Lead Ingot Balance: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64]. 3.6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory is 67,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 12 was 77,700 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March 9. The domestic primary basis is - 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - consecutive contract is - 20 yuan/ton [69]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory is 284,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 4,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is - 47.22 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 137.1 US dollars/ton [72]. - Cross - Market Structure: The ex - exchange rate Shanghai - London ratio is 1.246, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is 511.55 yuan/ton [75]. - Position Changes: The net short position of LME lead investment funds has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased [78].