油脂周报：油脂跟随油价宽幅波动-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen sharply, driving up the prices of oils and fats. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India have further declined to relatively low levels. The report maintains a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 4.29% and oil extraction rate down 0.52%. Indonesia is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - year. In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 230 million tons, down 49 million tons month - on - month and up 86 million tons year - on - year. In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 128 million tons, exports were 113 million tons, and inventory was 270 million tons. From March 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased compared to the same period last month. As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 175 million tons. In the week of March 6, the inventory of three major domestic oils and fats was 198 million tons [11]. - Viewpoint Summary: Due to the geopolitical crisis, short - term oil and fat prices are driven up by rising crude oil prices. With low inventories in major consumer countries, the report is bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [11]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis of oils and fats is neutral, the profit of palm oil imports is low, and the biodiesel price difference combined with inventory measurement is neutral. Malaysia's seasonal production cut is bullish, the geopolitical crisis is bullish, and low inventories in China and India are also bullish [12]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to buy on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides supply - demand balance sheets for Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil, global soybean oil, and global rapeseed oil, showing production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio data from 2004/05 to 2025/26 (February and March), along with month - on - month and year - on - year changes [14][15][16][17]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - The report presents multiple graphs related to the basis, spreads, and month - on - month differences of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the 5 - month contract basis, 5 - 9 contract month - on - month differences, and the spread between soybean oil 5 - month and palm oil 5 - month contracts [21][24][26][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - The report shows graphs of monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, weekly soybean arrivals and port inventory, and monthly rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports [32][33][35][36]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - Overall Inventory: Graphs show the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats and India's imported vegetable oil inventory [40]. - Palm Oil: Graphs display palm oil's near - month import profit and commercial inventory [42]. - Soybean Oil: Graphs show the spot crushing margin of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills [44]. - Rapeseed Oil: Graphs present the average coastal spot crushing margin of rapeseed and rapeseed oil commercial inventory [46]. - Origin Palm Oil Inventory: Graphs show the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [49]. 3.5. Cost Side - Palm Oil: Graphs show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed: Graphs show the near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 3.6. Demand Side - Oils and Fats Transactions: Graphs show the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - Biodiesel Profit: Graphs show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].