铝周报：中东战事对供应的威胁仍在-20260314

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The ongoing Middle East conflict and the planned maintenance of the Mozambique aluminum smelter by South32 pose significant threats to overseas aluminum supply. Overseas low inventories and strong spot prices are expected to continue. In China, the downstream operating rate is rising, the proportion of molten aluminum has returned to a relatively normal level, and with the decline in aluminum prices and the widening import losses, inventories are expected to peak and decline. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is expected to be between 24,500 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 3,350 - 3,580 US dollars/ton [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. It is expected to rise in March. The proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase this week. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, the 40% production cut of Qatar Aluminum due to the Middle East conflict and the restricted raw material supply in the Middle East will bring significant disturbances to electrolytic aluminum production in the region, and the growth rate of overseas electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decline [12]. - Inventory & Spot: On March 12, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons. Bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. On March 13, LME aluminum inventory was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. The spot discount of East China aluminum ingots fluctuated, and the LME market Cash/3M maintained a premium [12]. - Import and Export: From January to February 2026, the export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products were 541,000 tons and 430,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 16.1% respectively. The cumulative export from January to February was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. This week, the import loss of Shanghai aluminum spot widened [12]. - Demand: According to SMM research, in the first week after the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9%. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum rods increased significantly, while the operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable. Recently, the decline in high - frequency real estate transaction data compared with last year has narrowed, and the photovoltaic production schedule is expected to be slightly better [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. Shanghai aluminum rose 0.99% to 24,960 yuan/ton during the week (as of Friday afternoon's close), and LME aluminum rose 0.23% to 3,439 US dollars/ton. The near - month contract was relatively strong, and the discount between the first - and third - month contracts narrowed [21][25]. - Spot Market: The spot discount of aluminum ingots in various regions fluctuated and narrowed, and the spot basis in East China increased. The LME aluminum Cash/3M maintained a premium [29][39]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The smelting profit of primary aluminum remained at a high level, maintaining a historical high [46]. - Inventory: On March 12, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons; bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons; aluminum rod inventory was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. On March 13, LME global aluminum inventory was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons, still at a multi - year low. In February 2026, the proportion of aluminum from India in LME aluminum ingot inventory increased to 36.2%, and the proportion of aluminum from Russia increased to 59.8% [49][53][56][59]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: Domestic bauxite prices were stable, and overseas bauxite prices rebounded [64]. - Alumina Price: Domestic alumina prices fluctuated and rebounded, and imported alumina prices rebounded slightly [69]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: Anode prices remained stable, and thermal coal prices declined [74]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In February 2026, the operating capacity of alumina decreased month - on - month, and the monthly output decreased by 10.5% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year [79]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. It is expected to rise in March, with a year - on - year increase of about 2.8%. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, the production cut of Qatar Aluminum due to the Middle East conflict and the planned maintenance of the Mozambique electrolytic aluminum plant by South32 are expected to lead to a decline in the production growth rate [82]. - Molten Aluminum Proportion: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase this week. In February 2026, the domestic molten aluminum proportion decreased by 7.7 percentage points month - on - month to 64.4%. In March, with the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises, the molten aluminum proportion is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points month - on - month [85]. - Provincial - Level Production of Electrolytic Aluminum: In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum production of each province decreased month - on - month compared with January [88]. 3.6 Demand Side - Aluminum Product Output: In December 2025, China's aluminum product output was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The cumulative output from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. As of March 9, the daily aluminum ingot delivery volume was 95,000 tons, which increased month - on - month but was still lower than the same period last year [92]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In February 2026, the operating rate of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, and plate - strip - foil was weak. The operating rate of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year. The operating rate of aluminum rods weakened seasonally. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed month - on - month [95][99][103][108]. - Terminal Demand: In March 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners decreased by 6.1% compared with the actual output of the same period last year, the production schedule of refrigerators increased by 1.6%, and the production schedule of washing machines decreased by 3.4%. The decline in high - frequency real estate transaction data compared with last year has narrowed, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules in March increased month - on - month [111]. 3.7 Import and Export - Primary Aluminum Import: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. The import loss of aluminum ingot spot widened [116]. - Aluminum Product Export: From January to February 2026, the export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products were 541,000 tons and 430,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 16.1% respectively. The cumulative export from January to February was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% [123]. - Recycled Aluminum Import: In December 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 194,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [123]. - Bauxite and Alumina Import and Export: In December 2025, China's bauxite import volume was 14.673 million tons, and the proportion of imported ore was 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite import from January to December was 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. In December 2025, China's alumina export was 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina export from January to December was 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [126].