二手房挂牌价连跌两周

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai new policy on real estate has shown significant effects, with the second - week transaction volume after the policy release exceeding the previous three rounds. However, the overall real - estate market still faces challenges, such as the continuous decline in second - hand housing listing prices and the cooling of the housing market transaction volume in March [1][5][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai New Policy Effect Observation - Comparison with Other Cities: Comparing the 15 - day period from February 26 to March 12, 2026, with the same period in 2025 after the Spring Festival, Shanghai's real - estate transaction volume increased by 26% year - on - year, while Beijing and Shenzhen increased by 8% and decreased by 7% respectively [1] - Longitudinal Comparison in Shanghai: In the first week after the policy, the transaction volume increased by 12% compared with that before the policy, which was basically the same as the policy effect on August 25, 2025, and lower than the two rounds in May and September 2024. In the second week, the transaction volume increased by 52% compared with that before the policy, exceeding the previous three rounds (2% - 44%) [1] - Historical Experience: After the three relaxations of the "outside the outer ring" purchase restriction threshold in May 2024, September 2024, and August 2025, the weekly transaction volume experienced a 5 - 10 - week volatile growth period and then returned to the pre - policy level. The relaxation of the "inside the outer ring" in February 2026 was more powerful, and the duration of the active weekly transactions needed to be further observed [2] Housing Price Observation - Short - term Trend: Since the beginning of the year, second - hand housing listing prices first rose and then fell. After rising for five out of six weeks with a cumulative increase of 0.9%, they fell for two consecutive weeks, with a 0.8% decline each week, completely offsetting the previous increase. The latest data has reached the lowest point since the beginning of the year, continuing the downward trend since the second half of 2023 [5] - Long - term Comparison: Compared with the end of 2025, the second - hand housing listing prices in all - tier cities have declined by 1% - 3%, with first - tier cities down 1.7%, second - tier cities down 2.8%, and third - tier cities down 1.4% [5] - Historical Spring Market Analysis: Since 2022, the "spring market" of first - tier city second - hand housing prices has shown different characteristics each year. In 2022, it was stable; in 2024, it showed a slow decline; in 2023 and 2025, it had a phased pulse - like rise. In 2026, there was a small and rapid decline, with a 0.7% increase in the first week after the Spring Festival followed by a 1.95% decline in the next two weeks, indicating continued downward pressure on housing prices [6] March 1 - 12 Housing Market Transaction Volume - Overall Situation: Affected by the Shanghai policy, the weekly transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities increased by 15% month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline trend remained. The performance of new housing was weaker than that of second - hand housing, with the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities continuing to decline by 4% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanding [8] - Comparison with Previous Years: Usually, after the Spring Festival, the housing market enters the "Golden March and Silver April" period, with the transaction volume of second - hand and new housing rising until the end of March or early April. However, from March 1 - 12, 2026, the market was weaker than the same period last year. The second - hand housing transaction volume was weaker than that from January - February, with the year - on - year decline reaching 15%, an increase of 12 percentage points. New housing continued the downward trend from January - February, with a 19% decline in January - February and a 15% decline from March 1 - 12 [8] - Structural Analysis: In the second - hand housing market from March 1 - 12, second - tier cities led the decline in transaction area, mainly affected by Hangzhou and Suzhou. In the new housing market, third - tier cities led the decline, possibly due to the decrease in land auctions and new housing supply [8] Main City Transaction Observation - Second - Hand Housing: Beijing's second - hand housing transaction volume from March 6 - 12 was 360,000 square meters, a 12% month - on - month increase, 77% of the 2025 high; Shanghai's was 530,000 square meters, a 35% month - on - month increase, 96% of the 2025 high; Shenzhen's was 120,000 square meters, a 17% month - on - month increase, 64% of the 2025 high; Hangzhou's was 100,000 square meters, a 48% month - on - month increase, 51% of the 2025 high; Chengdu's was 530,000 square meters, a 13% month - on - month increase, 77% of the 2025 high [24][27][29][32][34] - New Housing: Beijing's new housing transaction volume from March 6 - 12 was 90,000 square meters, a 24% month - on - month decline, 23% of the 2025 high; Shanghai's was 250,000 square meters, a 46% month - on - month increase, 48% of the 2025 high; Shenzhen's was 30,000 square meters, a 14% decline from the previous week, 18% of the 2025 high; Guangzhou's was 230,000 square meters, a 157% month - on - month increase, 62% of the 2025 high; Hangzhou's was 60,000 square meters, an 80% month - on - month increase, 12% of the 2025 high; Chengdu's was 200,000 square meters, a 5% month - on - month decline, 41% of the 2025 high [37][39][42][44][45][47]