地缘冲突若长期化，该如何配置？

Group 1 - The ongoing US-Iran conflict is expected to last longer than market expectations, with the potential for a prolonged "war of attrition" where both sides will compete on costs and endurance, giving Iran the upper hand in determining the conflict's end [5][15][19] - High oil prices resulting from the conflict are anticipated to negatively impact US stock earnings, consumer prices, and economic growth, with inflation expectations rising non-linearly over time [10][12][15] - The report suggests a balanced portfolio with a focus on energy security-related sectors, as the current geopolitical situation differs from previous trade disputes, indicating a potential for significant price fluctuations in the oil market [15][20] Group 2 - Investment recommendations include prioritizing "conflict-benefiting" assets in energy, resources, and public utilities, with opportunities to increase positions during technical corrections in the energy sector [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology sectors driven by domestic logic over those influenced by overseas factors, particularly in light of rising inflation expectations and interest rates that may suppress valuations of overseas tech assets [20] - For Hong Kong stocks, resource and high-dividend sectors may benefit from the ongoing geopolitical tensions, while the Hang Seng Technology Index, sensitive to global liquidity and risk appetite, may face some impact but has limited downside due to prior valuation adjustments [19][20]