国信期货焦煤焦炭周报：宏观叠加外部扰动，煤焦偏强震荡-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a strong and volatile trend due to macroeconomic factors and external disturbances. The supply side is generally loose, while the demand side is under pressure. The market is waiting for the resumption of production in the spring by steel mills [60]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Market Review - Not provided in the document 3.2 Macroeconomic and Policy - Economic Data: In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index slightly rose to 49.5%. The national industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month [13]. - Domestic Policy: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" was passed, setting a growth target of 4.5% - 5% and emphasizing high - quality development and domestic demand expansion [13]. - Overseas Conflict: Iran's new supreme leader stated that the leverage of blocking the Strait of Hormuz would continue to be used [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation of Coking Coal - Production: In December 2025, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 4.4 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. From January to December, the production was 48.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of this Friday, the operating rate of 523 sample coal mines was 87.16%, a week - on - week increase of 5.77% [17]. - Import: In December 2025, China's coking coal imports reached 13.7698 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. The total import volume in 2025 was 118.6256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. It is expected that imports from Russia and Mongolia will continue to increase in 2026 [20]. - Inventory: As of this Friday, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7768 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,800 tons. The main port coking coal inventory was 2.6755 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons. The coking coal inventory of sample coking enterprises was 8.1493 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 187,800 tons. The coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 7.7763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,900 tons [25][29][33]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation of Coke - Supply: In December 2025, the coke production was 42.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. From January to December, the production was 504.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [36]. - Coking Enterprise Operation: As of this Friday, the capacity utilization rate of 230 sample independent coking enterprises was 72.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [40]. - Inventory: As of this Friday, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 564,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,700 tons. The main port coke inventory was 1.9638 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,300 tons. The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 687,550 tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,900 tons [44][48][52]. - Demand: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The daily average hot metal production of 247 sample steel mills was 2.212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons [56]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future of Double - Coking - The supply of coking coal is in a loose pattern, and the high - volume import of Mongolian coal suppresses prices. The coke supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is under pressure. The market is waiting for the resumption of production by steel mills in the spring. The market is expected to be strong and volatile due to macroeconomic factors and external disturbances [60].