国信期货甲醇周报：港口去库，甲醇短期波动加剧-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term fluctuations of methanol will intensify due to port destocking. The port destocking this week provides positive support to market sentiment, but downstream demand is weak. The theoretical operating range of methanol has shifted upwards, with an upper limit of 2,940 yuan/ton from the industrial chain perspective. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of domestic MTO [43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Market Review - 1.1 Methanol Spot and Futures Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the main methanol contract MA2605 on Friday was 2,805 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 11%. The position decreased by 90,000 lots to 580,000 lots, and the basis strengthened [6]. - 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Spreads between Production and Sales Areas - The coastal methanol market rose significantly, and the inland market also fluctuated upwards. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,685 yuan/ton, a 14% increase from the previous week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 2,178 yuan/ton, a 13.54% increase. Due to the expected reduction in supply from the Middle East and geopolitical conflicts, low - price products were hard to find [9]. - 1.3 Methanol Foreign Prices and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Globally, methanol prices continued to rise. The price in Southeast Asia increased by over 45%, the price at the Chinese main port increased by 12%, and the prices in Europe and the United States increased by about 8 - 9%. Non - Iranian methanol cargoes for far - month arrival were negotiated at 278 - 350 US dollars/ton, and Iranian cargoes were negotiated at +1 - 2%. European methanol prices were around 395 - 400 euros/ton. Holders were reluctant to sell [12]. 3.2 Part 2: Methanol Fundamental Analysis - 2.1 Methanol Operating Rate - As of March 12, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 76.27%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.27 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating rate in Northwest China was 85.66%, a 0.35 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.48 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The increase in the operating rate in North China led to a slight increase in the national operating rate. Some plants restarted, and domestic supply remained high [16]. - 2.2 Methanol Import and Export Volumes - The import arbitrage window was closed, while the Southeast Asian market had a large increase, and the re - export arbitrage window was opened [19]. - 2.3 Methanol Port Inventory - This week, ports achieved destocking. The available inventory was sufficient in the short term. The arrival volume recovered compared with last week, and the arrival forecast also increased. The short - term import inventory pressure was not significant. The coastal methanol inventory was 129.28 tons, a decrease of 12.05 tons from the previous week and a 34.81% increase from the same period last year, still at a relatively high historical level. The estimated available methanol supply in coastal areas was 64.4 tons. The overall提货 volume in Taicang increased this week, with more re - export shipments. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported methanol in mid - to - late March will be 32 tons, with more arrivals at major downstream factories [22]. - 2.5 Methanol Upstream - Coal - The domestic thermal coal market was under pressure and adjusted weakly this week. Most coal mines in production areas resumed normal production and sales, with high - level supply. Downstream procurement demand was limited, power plants controlled procurement rhythm, and non - power terminals maintained rigid demand. The pit - mouth price decreased. The profit of coal - to - methanol continued to recover [26][27]. - 2.6 Methanol Downstream Prices and Operating Rates - The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was 73%, a 1% increase from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was 59%, a 5.87% increase. The operating load of traditional downstream continued to increase, while the demand for olefins was weak [29]. - 2.7 Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream - No specific summary content provided other than data charts. - 2.8 Methanol Downstream - MTO - The average operating load of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 78.14%, the same as last week. The average load of MTO plants using externally - purchased methanol was 70.29%, also unchanged from last week. Some plants such as Sierbang and Xingxing had not restarted, and the olefin plants were operating stably with no significant increase in operating rate. The downstream olefin prices also increased, enhancing the tolerance for raw - material methanol. The theoretical operating range of methanol shifted upwards, with an upper limit of 2,940 yuan/ton from the industrial chain perspective. The increase in ethylene prices reduced its substitution for methanol, improving the economic efficiency of MTO. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of domestic MTO [40]. 3.3 Part 3: Future Outlook - The port destocking this week provides positive support to market sentiment, but downstream demand is weak. The theoretical operating range of methanol has shifted upwards, with an upper limit of 2,940 yuan/ton from the industrial chain perspective. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of domestic MTO [43].