铁合金周报：价格修复后维持震荡观望为主-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferromanganese - silicon, last week, the ferromanganese - silicon futures fluctuated strongly, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis mainly fluctuated. Domestically, the macro - outlook is positive, while overseas, the Middle - East situation is unclear, the crude oil price has risen, but the thermal coal price has started to decline. The forward price of manganese ore continues to rise, with some ore varieties having an inverted arrival price, but according to Shanghai Steel Union shipping data, manganese ore shipments are at a high level and there is no supply - demand gap in the market currently. A landmark steel mill has started steel procurement with a price increase but a volume decrease. It is recommended to view it mainly as a fluctuating market [47]. - For ferrosilicon, last week, the ferrosilicon futures and spot prices both rose, and the basis remained flat at a low level. The thermal coal spot market has weakened, and electricity prices in different regions have different trends. The production profit of ferrosilicon has recovered, and the output has increased. According to Mysteel statistics, for 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in the country, the national capacity utilization rate is 27.86%, an increase of 1.31% compared with last week; the daily average output is 13,920 tons, an increase of 1.02% (140 tons) compared with last week. The trend of ferrosilicon depends on energy price changes, and it is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish and fluctuating outlook [47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Market Review - News Overview: In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%, returning to double - digit growth for the first time since January 2024. The Iran war is bringing unprecedented turmoil to the global oil market, affecting about 7.5% of the global oil supply. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in France. Iran launched a military operation, attacking multiple military bases. The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners. The total sales of 14 key real - estate enterprises from January to February 2026 decreased by 23.7% year - on - year, and the sales in February decreased by 35.2% year - on - year and 25.6% month - on - month [5][6]. - Manganese - Silicon Futures and Price Changes: The basis of manganese - silicon in different regions has different trends in year - on - year, 30 - day, and one - week changes. The spot prices of different manganese ores also have different year - on - year, 30 - day, and one - week changes [10]. - Silicon - Iron Futures and Related Data: The report also shows the trends of silicon - iron futures, basis, and the changes in electricity prices in main production areas and coal prices in main production areas and ports [13][19][21]. 3.2 Part 2: Overview of the Manganese - Silicon Industry Chain - Manganese Ore Price and Inventory: The report shows the price trends of 38Mn/42Mn manganese ore from 2019 - 2026 and the inventory situation of manganese ore [25][29]. - Manganese - Silicon Profit Estimation, Output, and Demand: The profit estimation of manganese - silicon shows a certain trend. The output of manganese - silicon in 2026 and previous years is presented, and the demand for manganese - silicon is related to steel production [30][33][35]. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of the Silicon - Iron Industry Chain - Silicon - Iron Profit Estimation and Output: The profit estimation of silicon - iron is shown. The output of silicon - iron in 2026 and previous years is presented, and the demand for silicon - iron is related to steel production [38][41][44]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - For ferromanganese - silicon, it is recommended to view it as a fluctuating market. For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish and fluctuating outlook [47].