宏观周度观察：开年投资哪家强？

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The strong export growth at the beginning of the year is expected to inject positive momentum into manufacturing investment, with a notable increase in export growth of 21.8% year-on-year for January-February 2026[40] - The PMI purchasing index indicates that manufacturing investment growth may improve, although it remains below the threshold of stability[14] - The employment index shows that the manufacturing sector's employment recovery is better than that of the construction sector, suggesting a stronger start for manufacturing investment[14] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment - The scale and proportion of special bonds directed towards infrastructure at the beginning of the year are slightly higher than the same period last year, but overall fiscal resources are not heavily tilted towards infrastructure[19] - High-frequency data indicates that construction-related indicators, such as asphalt operating rates, are at historically low levels, suggesting limited potential for significant infrastructure investment growth[20] - The overall recovery in infrastructure investment is expected to be constrained due to adjustments in fiscal spending throughout the year[19] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - A significant 90% of real estate companies reported a year-on-year decrease in new project starts after the New Year, indicating a slow recovery in real estate investment[24] - The "Shanghai Seven" policy has had a limited effect on new home sales, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the real estate market[28] - Infrastructure investment, while not strong, is still performing better than real estate, with only 39% of infrastructure companies reporting a decrease in new project starts compared to 90% in real estate[28] Group 4: Economic Data and Trends - February's CPI saw a significant increase due to the concentrated release of demand from the long holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[31] - The PPI continued to recover, with a year-on-year decline of only 0.9% in February, supported by rising international oil prices and the effects of "anti-involution" policies[37] - The overall economic activity index for January-February is at a historical high, indicating a notable increase in economic vitality at the start of the year[60]