宝胜国际：2025年业绩不及预期，复苏不确定性仍存，下调目标价和评级-20260315

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral [7][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2025 is expected to be below expectations, with uncertainties surrounding recovery. Revenue and net profit are projected to decline by 7.2% and 57.1% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to weak offline channels, increased discounts, and operational deleveraging [8][9]. - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 0.49 from HKD 0.74, based on a revised earnings multiple of 6 times the 2026 forecast [9]. - Despite facing uncertainties, the company offers a relatively high dividend yield, providing some downside protection [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2026 are set at RMB 16,802 million, reflecting a decrease of 6% from previous estimates [10]. - Net profit for 2026 is forecasted at RMB 390 million, down 24% from earlier predictions [10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline to 33.7%, a drop of 1.1 percentage points from prior estimates [10]. Sales Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in same-store sales, with a drop of 10-20% in the year, primarily due to weak foot traffic in physical stores [8]. - Online sales have shown improvement, with revenue contribution rising to over 30%, and sales through live-streaming platforms like Douyin increasing by over 70% [8]. Market Conditions - Early signs of recovery were noted in January and February 2026, with retail sales showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.9% [8]. - However, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain due to external market conditions and competitive pressures [8].