尿素周度行情分析：国际局势动荡不定，尿素盘面呈现较强抗跌性-20260315

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the urea 05 contract futures price rose significantly, reaching a phased high, and the price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to price controls [4][5]. - The international situation has pushed up international urea prices, widening the price gap between the domestic and international markets, and providing support for the domestic market sentiment [6]. - The urea basis has declined, and the UR05&09 spread has narrowed [10]. - The number of urea warehouse receipts has continued to increase [11]. - Urea plant maintenance has decreased, and the plant is operating at a high load [14]. - The urea production has remained stable, and the开工 rate has slightly decreased [16]. - The compound fertilizer industry has seen an increase in the start - up rate, a decrease in inventory, and narrow profit adjustments, with potential for further load increase [19]. - The melamine industry's start - up rate has rebounded, and production has increased, with expectations of further improvement [21][22]. - Urea enterprise inventory has decreased, port inventory has slightly decreased, and the number of pre - orders has increased [23]. - The theoretical profit of the urea industry has continued to improve, especially for the fixed - bed process [26]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Futures Price Trends - The urea 05 contract futures price has been strong this week, reaching a phased high. As of Thursday's close, the UR2605 contract price was reported at 1,875 yuan/ton. The short - term price is supported by external market sentiment and demand, but the upside space is limited [4][5]. Spot Market Price Trends - In the domestic market, the urea spot price has remained stable, with limited adjustment space due to price guidance. In the international market, the price has continued to rise, widening the domestic - international price gap [6]. Basis and Spread - The basis has declined as the futures price is strong and the spot price is controlled. As of Thursday, the Shandong 05 contract basis was about 15 yuan/ton, and the Henan 05 contract basis was about - 15 yuan/ton. The UR05&09 spread has narrowed, reaching about - 15 yuan/ton as of Thursday [10]. Warehouse Receipts - As the futures price has risen, the number of urea warehouse receipts has continued to increase. As of Thursday, there were about 6,380 warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings [11]. Plant Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea plant maintenance has decreased. As of March 12, the plant maintenance volume was about 98,100 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the previous period. The urea start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the production has remained stable [14][16]. Compound Fertilizer Industry - The compound fertilizer start - up rate has increased significantly, with a current start - up rate of about 45.56%. The profit has been narrowly adjusted, and the inventory has decreased by 2.28% [19]. Melamine Industry - The melamine start - up rate has rebounded to about 53.35%, and the production has increased to about 28,200 tons. There are expectations for further improvement in the start - up rate [21][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory has decreased by about 12.79%, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the number of pre - orders has increased to about 8.06 days [23]. Industry Profit - The theoretical profit of the urea industry has continued to improve. As of March 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 209 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry profit was about 322 yuan/ton, and the natural gas profit was about - 128 yuan/ton [26].