纯碱周度行情分析：地缘冲突持续，纯碱价格震荡上扬-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a strong performance in the energy and chemical sectors this week. The price of the main contract of soda ash, 05, has been rising, with the closing price of the 2605 contract at 1,256 yuan/ton and the 2609 contract at 1,322 yuan/ton as of Thursday. The short - term strength of the market is due to external sentiment, but the supply - demand situation of soda ash itself remains weak, with high inventory pressure [5]. - The external uncertainty increases short - term price volatility. Although the external sentiment is high, the weak fundamentals may weaken the subsequent rebound momentum of soda ash, so caution is advised [5]. - In terms of arbitrage, due to the greater suppression of the 05 contract by high industrial inventory, the spread between 05 and 09 contracts of soda ash is likely to run weakly [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - As of Thursday, the closing price of the soda ash 2605 contract was 1,256 yuan/ton, and the 2609 contract was 1,322 yuan/ton, with the price center gradually moving up [5]. Spot Market - The soda ash spot market has strengthened steadily recently, with mainstream prices in various regions increasing slightly. The current spot market has abundant supply, and downstream buyers mainly restock at low prices, with new order transactions slowing down [7]. - As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,200 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1,250 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - In terms of basis, the strong rally of the futures market has dragged the basis to gradually weaken. As of Thursday, the basis of the North China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 6 yuan/ton, and the Central China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 106 yuan/ton [10]. - As of Thursday, the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of soda ash is - 66 yuan/ton, mainly in a weak shock. In the medium term, the spread may continue to run weakly due to high industrial inventory [10]. Supply Side - The domestic soda ash production start - up rate increased compared with last week. As of March 12, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 87%, a 0.23% increase from last week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the ammonia - soda process was about 90.45%, remaining flat from last week; the capacity utilization rate of the combined - process was about 79.55%, a 3.23% increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89%, a 1.31% decrease [11]. - Soda ash production capacity continues to rise, and subsequent supply will remain at a high level. It is estimated that the short - term start - up rate will remain at a high level [11]. - As of March 12, the soda ash output was about 809,200 tons, a 2,200 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the light soda ash output was about 380,900 tons, a 6,200 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash output was about 428,300 tons, a 4,000 - ton decrease [16]. - As of March 12, the domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 822,500 tons, a 11.43% increase from last week; the overall soda ash shipment rate was about 101.92%, continuing to increase from last week [16]. Demand Side - The apparent demand for soda ash continued to rise this week [18]. - The daily output of float glass decreased slightly. As of March 12, the daily output of domestic float glass was about 146,900 tons, a 10,800 - ton decrease from the previous period; the weekly output of float glass was about 1,033,300 tons, a 0.62% decrease. The capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 71.09%, a 0.1% decrease from last week [21]. - As of March 12, the in - production capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass was about 87,760 tons per day, remaining flat from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 65.93%, and the number of blocked kilns of enterprises remained stable this week [21]. - The decline in daily melting volume provides weak support for the consumption of raw material soda ash [21]. Inventory Side - The inventory of the soda ash industry continued to increase, with the absolute inventory amount adjusting at a high level. As of March 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.9317 million tons, including about 1.0136 million tons of light soda ash and about 0.9181 million tons of heavy soda ash [33]. - The improvement of downstream demand is relatively limited, and the daily melting volume of glass continues to fluctuate at a low level. Considering the lack of substantial improvement in subsequent demand and the high - level adjustment of device load, it is estimated that the de - stocking pressure of the soda ash industry will still be large, which will weaken part of the rebound momentum [33]. Profitability - The profit of the soda ash industry has improved significantly compared with the previous period. As of March 12, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic combined - process soda ash was about 166 yuan/ton, a 168.5 - yuan increase from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 26.20 yuan/ton, a 56.45 - yuan increase from the previous period [36]. - Recently, geopolitical conflicts have made the energy and chemical sectors strong. Against this background, the price of soda ash has also strengthened. Although the fundamentals are relatively weak, the industry profit has also improved significantly due to the boost of external sentiment. However, the improvement space of industry profit may be limited in the medium - term expansion cycle [36].