沥青周度行情分析：成本上行原料担忧，需求低迷持续累库-20260315

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Options: Hold off for now [5] - Supply side: As of the week of March 13, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 6.51 percentage points week-on-week to 24.75%; the weekly asphalt output decreased by 10.39 tons week-on-week to 37.94 tons. Affected by the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the high valuation of asphalt continued to decline significantly to a low level. Most refineries' production raw materials were affected to varying degrees. Sinopec's main refineries in Shandong stopped producing and selling asphalt, major local refineries reduced production and limited shipments, and most other local refineries also maintained low production or stopped production [5]. - Demand side: As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 17.61 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons week-on-week; the开工率 of road modified asphalt was 9%, an increase of 1 percentage point week-on-week; the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 33%, an increase of 3 percentage points week-on-week. The asphalt shipment volume was at a low level year-on-year, and the seasonal recovery of the开工 rates of road and waterproofing modified asphalt was lower than the same period last year. The rapid rise in crude oil prices at the cost end, weak demand, and a wait-and-see attitude among middle and downstream players led to few transactions, and refineries and traders were reluctant to sell [5]. - Inventory side: Asphalt refineries slightly reduced their inventories by 2.7 tons, while social inventories continued to accumulate significantly by 11.13 tons [5]. - Unilateral: Driven by the cost side, the absolute price of asphalt strengthened, but due to weak demand, its performance was worse than that of crude oil, and its valuation declined significantly. With high uncertainty on the cost side, asphalt prices mainly fluctuated accordingly [5]. - Cross-variety arbitrage: Hold off for now [5] - Spot-futures and inter-period arbitrage: The risk-free arbitrage of BU2603 - 2604 can be held until maturity [5] Summary by Directory Supply Perspective - Domestic asphalt开工率 and weekly output are at a historically low level year-on-year. Multiple refineries have stopped production, including Shengxing Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical, Ningbo Keyuan, Fujian United, and Yunnan Petrochemical [6][7]. - The asphalt开工率 decreased by 6.51 percentage points week-on-week to 24.75% [9]. - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 10.39 tons week-on-week to 37.94 tons [20]. - There are numerous asphalt plant maintenance plans across different regions and enterprises, affecting asphalt production capacity and production schedules [23][24]. Demand Perspective - The rapid rise in crude oil prices at the cost end has led to weak demand. Middle and downstream players are waiting and watching, resulting in few transactions. Refineries and traders are reluctant to sell. Different regions have different market situations, such as in Shandong, North China, East China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Southwest China [26]. - The asphalt shipment volume is at a low level year-on-year. The seasonal recovery of the开工 rates of road and waterproofing modified asphalt is lower than the same period last year. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 17.61 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons week-on-week; the开工 rate of road modified asphalt was 9%, an increase of 1 percentage point week-on-week; the开工 rate of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 33%, an increase of 3 percentage points week-on-week [27]. - In the next ten days, strong cold air will affect areas north of the Yangtze River, and there will be more rainy days in the eastern part of Southwest China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which may further affect asphalt demand [29]. Inventory Perspective - Refineries' asphalt inventories slightly decreased. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt refinery inventory was 90.4 (-2.7) tons, with different inventory changes in various regions [35]. - Social inventories continued to accumulate significantly. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 205.94 (+11.13) tons, with different inventory changes in various regions [43]. Basis Perspective - The basis is moderately high driven by geopolitical factors [59]. Spread Perspective - Hold off on spread arbitrage for now [72]. Profit Perspective - The asphalt production gross profit has declined significantly. As of the week of March 13, the asphalt gross profit was -265 yuan/ton (-193), the asphalt production cost was 4022 yuan/ton (+643), and the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory was 80 tons (-5). The high valuation of asphalt continued to decline significantly to a low level under the influence of the Iranian geopolitical situation [86]. - The asphalt crack spread has declined from a high level to a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [87]. Warehouse Receipt Perspective - Warehouse receipts increased slightly [101]. - The virtual-to-real ratio is moderately low [104].