产业高库存亟待消化，纯碱价格反弹空间或有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to geopolitical conflicts, energy prices have risen significantly this week, and the downstream chemical product cost increase expectation is emerging. The main 05 contract of soda ash has fluctuated upward, but the subsequent upward space of soda ash prices may be limited because the industry is facing great inventory removal pressure [4]. - The spread between soda ash 05&09 may tend to weaken in the future because the high inventory of the industry has a more obvious suppression effect on the 05 contract [4]. - The spot market of soda ash is mainly stable recently, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The actual increase in downstream demand is relatively limited [7]. - The basis has narrowed slightly, and the spread between 05&09 has adjusted narrowly. In the medium - term, the strengthening space of the spread may be limited [10]. - The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. The industry inventory continues to rise, and the subsequent inventory removal pressure remains high, which will put pressure on the futures price [32]. - The profit of the soda ash industry has adjusted narrowly, and the overall industry is still in a loss stage. In the medium - term expansion cycle, low industry profit may become the norm [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the main 05 contract of soda ash fluctuated upward this week. As of Thursday, the closing price of the soda ash 2605 contract was 1,225 yuan/ton, and that of the 2609 contract was 1,281 yuan/ton, with the price center shifting slightly upward [4]. Spot Market - The spot market of soda ash is mainly stable recently, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The downstream demand is gradually resuming, and the raw material inventory has decreased, leading to low - price replenishment by downstream enterprises, but the actual increase is relatively limited [7]. - As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,230 - 1,300 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,160 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1,200 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - The weak operation of the spot market has dragged the basis to narrow slightly, and the overall fluctuation elasticity is relatively limited. As of Thursday, the basis of the North China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 5 yuan/ton, and that of the Central China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 75 yuan/ton [10]. - As of Thursday, the spread between soda ash 05&09 is - 56 yuan/ton, with a narrow adjustment. In the medium - term, the strengthening space of the spread may be limited [10]. Supply Side - This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate continued to rise compared with last week. As of March 5, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 86.77%, a 1.73% increase from last week [11]. - This week, the soda ash output continued to rise. As of March 5, the soda ash output was about 807,000 tons, a 16,000 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the output of light soda ash was about 374,700 tons, a 6,800 - ton increase, and the output of heavy soda ash was about 432,300 tons, a 9,200 - ton increase [15]. - As of March 5, the domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 738,200 tons, a 53.26% increase from last week; the overall soda ash shipment rate was about 93.32%, a significant increase from last week [15]. Demand Side - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash rebounded month - on - month [18]. - The daily melting volume of glass has been fluctuating at a low level, providing insufficient support for the consumption of raw material soda ash. The daily output of float glass has remained stable. As of March 5, the domestic float glass daily output was about 148,500 tons, the same as the previous period; the weekly float glass output was about 1,039,700 tons, a 0.17% slight increase [22]. - As of March 5, the domestic photovoltaic glass in - production capacity was about 87,760 tons per day, a 0.9% decrease from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 65.93%, and the enterprise kiln blocking volume remained stable this week [22]. - The float glass inventory has increased significantly month - on - month. As of March 5, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million heavy boxes, a 3.629 - million - heavy - box increase from the previous period, a rise of about 4.77%, equivalent to 35.3 days of inventory, 1.5 days more than the previous period [23]. - The inventory pressure of float glass traders in Shahe is prominent, and the factory inventory has also increased significantly. At present, the inventory of Shahe traders is about 8.4 million weight boxes, a 1.68 - million - ton increase from last week, and the factory inventory in Shahe as of March 6 is about 5.356 million weight boxes, a 526,400 - weight - box increase from last week [25]. - The cold - repair loss of float glass decreased slightly this week. As of March 5, the national float glass loss was about 356,350 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period [28]. - Recently, the industrial profit of float glass has improved month - on - month. As of March 5, the weekly average profit of domestic float glass using natural gas as fuel was about - 105.12 yuan/ton, a 37.14 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was about - 36.29 yuan/ton, a 5.5 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was about 26.79 yuan/ton, a 17.14 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period [28]. Inventory Side - The soda ash industry inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the absolute inventory reached a new high. As of March 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.9472 million tons, including about 1.0273 million tons of light soda ash and about 0.9199 million tons of heavy soda ash [32]. Profit Side - The profit of the soda ash industry has adjusted narrowly, with relatively little change. As of March 5, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was about - 2.5 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process was about - 82.65 yuan/ton, a 7.5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [35].