工业硅／多晶硅周度行情分析：过剩压力难消，硅系价格疲弱-20260315

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are in a pattern of oversupply, high inventory, and industry losses, resulting in a volatile market with upward pressure and downward support [2]. - For polysilicon, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak. The industry's over - capacity reduction is still the general direction, and the method will return to market - based means [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review Industrial Silicon - Spot prices of industrial silicon increased, with the price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China rising by 100 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon rising by 1000 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures decreased by 0.5% week - on - week to 8645 yuan/ton, and the futures index position decreased by 29,800 lots to 350,000 lots [6]. Polysilicon - Spot prices of polysilicon decreased, with the average spot price of N - type dense material decreasing by 3.5 yuan/kg to 43.5 yuan/kg, and the average spot price of N - type mixed material decreasing by 4 yuan/kg to 42 yuan/kg. The 2605 contract of polysilicon futures increased by 4% week - on - week to 42,760 yuan/ton, and the futures index position decreased by 4361 lots to 54,200 lots [9]. Supply Side Industrial Silicon - Some large factories have restarted some furnaces, and the rest will restart successively. It is expected that the average daily output of industrial silicon in March will increase by about 13% month - on - month. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 275,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.77% [2][15]. Polysilicon - In March, the output of polysilicon may increase due to some small enterprises' start - up plans and the increase in the number of days. The global output is expected to exceed 90,000 tons. As of March 12, the polysilicon inventory was about 357,000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period [37]. Cost Side Industrial Silicon - The southwest region is in the dry season, with high electricity prices. The production in the southwest is in a loss state. As of January 31, the average production cost of 553 silicon nationwide was 10,178.3 yuan/ton, with a loss of 1010 yuan/ton; the average production cost of 421 silicon was 10,410.48 yuan/ton, with a loss of 1328 yuan/ton [22][24]. Policy and Industry News - The market supervision department has proposed rectification opinions on the "anti - involution" of polysilicon in the name of "anti - monopoly", which may lead the industry to return to market - based over - capacity reduction [26]. - The energy consumption standard for polysilicon unit products has been further tightened. If the enterprise's unit product comprehensive energy consumption is higher than the third - level standard, it may need to withdraw [30]. Demand Side Industrial Silicon - In the 3 - 5 month period, the organic silicon is expected to operate at a low load, the aluminum alloy start - up rate may seasonally recover, and the polysilicon also has a certain month - on - month increase, but the supply increase is expected to be greater than the demand increase [2]. Polysilicon - In March, the output of the photovoltaic main material link is expected to increase month - on - month, but the sustainability is poor. The downstream acceptance of polysilicon price increases is low [37]. Inventory Side - As of March 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipts) was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous period. The factory + social inventory (including warehouse receipts) totaled 749,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period [54]. Strategy Suggestions Industrial Silicon - New orders: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Hedging: Upstream enterprises should conduct low - proportion selling hedging; downstream enterprises such as polysilicon and aluminum alloy should conduct medium - proportion buying hedging. Futures - spot arbitrage: Wait and see. Spread arbitrage: Wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and manage positions well. Options: Hold out - of - the - money call options in an appropriate amount and hold them until maturity to obtain option premiums. Hedging: Upstream enterprises can appropriately reduce the selling hedging ratio (medium - level overall); downstream enterprises can appropriately increase the buying hedging ratio as the price falls (the overall level should not be too high). Spread arbitrage: Wait and see [3].