国泰海通香江策论之数据周报:伊朗局势延续,能源价格高企-20260315

Liquidity Data - The US Dollar Index surged 1.6% to 100.5, the highest since November last year, driven by geopolitical tensions[2] - Brent crude oil rebounded to over $103 per barrel, following initial declines, influenced by US-Iran tensions and Trump's remarks[2] - Precious metals faced pressure, with gold down 2.9% and silver down 4.6% for the week[2] - Southbound funds in Hong Kong saw a net inflow of HKD 52.4 billion from March 9 to 12, while overseas investors recorded a net inflow of HKD 5.4 billion from March 5 to 11[2] Market Insights - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 14.2 basis points to 4.27%, reflecting increasing inflation concerns[13] - The coal sector is expected to enter a new upcycle, with a confirmed bottom in Q2 2025[37] - Energy storage demand is surging, leading to tighter lithium supply[37] - Urea prices have significantly increased due to Middle Eastern tensions, with a projected 20% rise in the fertilizer index by 2025[43] - The Hong Kong market saw a rise in short-selling activity, with the overall short-selling ratio increasing to 21%[18]

国泰海通香江策论之数据周报:伊朗局势延续,能源价格高企-20260315 - Reportify