——有色金属大宗金属周报（2026/3/9-2026/3/14）：中东地缘冲突延续造成铝出口受阻，铝价上行-20260315

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are causing disruptions in aluminum exports, leading to an increase in aluminum prices [3] - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with short-term weakness anticipated [4] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight balance to shortage in the medium to long term due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining [4] - The aluminum market is expected to see upward price trends due to supply constraints and stable demand growth, particularly influenced by geopolitical tensions [4] - Lithium prices are projected to continue rising due to ongoing inventory depletion and an approaching demand peak [4] - Cobalt prices are fluctuating, with attention on downstream replenishment driven by the arrival of cobalt raw materials [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. February CPI year-on-year rate is 2.4%, aligning with expectations [8] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 7 were reported at 213,000, slightly below expectations [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.70% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.69%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 3.00 percentage points [10] - Lithium, aluminum, and aluminum materials showed the most significant price changes, while copper, tin, and tungsten lagged behind [10] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM valuation for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 32.54, with a decrease of 0.93 from the previous week [19] - The PB_LF valuation for the same index is 4.02, down by 0.12 from the previous week [19] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.05%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.73% [24] - Copper inventories in London rose by 9.67%, and in Shanghai by 1.96% [24] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.74%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 2.61% [35] - The profit margin for aluminum companies increased by 6.86% to 9,542 yuan/ton [35] 6. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell by 0.57%, and Shanghai lead prices decreased by 1.07% [45] - London zinc prices increased by 1.41%, while Shanghai zinc prices slightly decreased by 0.21% [45] 7. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped by 4.54%, and Shanghai tin prices fell by 1.91% [59] - London nickel prices rose by 0.81%, and Shanghai nickel prices increased by 1.31% [59] 8. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 2.42% to 159,000 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 2.55% to 2,210 USD/ton [73] 9. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.29% to 26.13 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 0.23% to 434,000 yuan/ton [85]