有色金属：通胀预期扰动，行业震荡上行

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the metals industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal prices [2] - The supply-demand balance is tight, but macroeconomic influences are critical for price trends [2] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have decreased, with SHFE gold down 0.70% to 1,133.00 CNY per gram and COMEX gold down 2.63% to 5,023.10 USD per ounce [7] - Central bank gold purchases continue, with China's gold reserves increasing to 7,422 million ounces, marking a 30,000-ounce increase [7] - Silver prices also fell, with SHFE silver down 1.24% to 20,923 CNY per kilogram [8] Copper - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations, with SHFE copper down 0.73% to 100,310 CNY per ton [9] - Supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting copper supply, while domestic demand shows signs of recovery [9] - The operating rate for refined copper rods increased to 72.92%, up 10.45 percentage points [9][75] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are supported by geopolitical tensions, with SHFE aluminum up 0.99% to 24,960 CNY per ton [9] - Domestic aluminum processing rates have increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% [9] - Global aluminum inventory has decreased by 10,000 tons to 233,000 tons [83] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate demand remains strong, with continuous inventory depletion despite rising production [10] - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to tight raw material supply and cautious purchasing from downstream sectors [10] - The report highlights the strategic value of rare earths, despite a recent price decline [10] Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are supported by overseas price increases and domestic export controls [10] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to a persistent supply-demand gap driven by nuclear power development [10] - Tantalum prices are increasing due to supply shortages from the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]