——2月金融数据点评:财政上量推动企业贷款持续改善,久期资产承压
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-15 05:59

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The financial data in February 2026 showed stable total volume and improved structure. With the intensification of credit - easing policies, corporate credit may continue to perform strongly, challenging the bond market's allocation logic in January and February. It is recommended to reasonably reduce the duration and focus on the coupon certainty of medium - and short - duration credit bonds [1]. - The logic of going long in the bond market in January and February is challenged. Corporate credit may continue to be strong, and the demand for bank bond - allocation may weaken. In the future, the bond market may experience a rapid correction due to factors such as faster fundamental repair, continuous disturbances in asset price - to - value ratios, and unexpected inflation increases [1]. - It is advisable to be cautious about long - duration and ultra - long - duration assets, and continue to focus on medium - and short - duration credit bonds and coupon strategies with higher certainty [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Financial Data Overview - In February 2026, the new RMB loans were 0.90 trillion yuan (compared to 4.71 trillion yuan in January 2026), the new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan (compared to 7.22 trillion yuan in January 2026), the year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.2% (the same as in January 2026), and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9% (the same as in January 2026) [1]. Credit Structure - Corporate Credit: In February, corporate loans increased by 1.49 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4500 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term loans were the main support, with a year - on - year increase of 3500 billion yuan in medium - and long - term loans, a year - on - year increase of 2700 billion yuan in short - term loans, and a year - on - year decrease of 2043 billion yuan in bill financing. The strengthening of corporate credit may be mainly due to the pre - implementation of "two major" projects and equipment renewal subsidies [1]. - Residential Credit: In February, residential loans decreased by 2616 billion yuan year - on - year. Short - term loans decreased by 1952 billion yuan year - on - year, indicating weak consumption propensity; medium - and long - term loans decreased by 665 billion yuan year - on - year, consistent with the weak performance of the commercial housing market compared to the same period in previous years [1]. Deposit Situation - In February, residential new deposits reached 3.11 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.50 trillion yuan; new non - bank deposits were 1.39 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.44 trillion yuan. This may be affected by the Spring Festival misalignment, with corporate year - end bonuses driving the year - on - year increase in residential deposits, and Spring Festival consumption demand and equity market fluctuations restricting non - bank deposits [1]. Other Indicators - The M1 growth rate increased by 1.0 pcts to 5.9% in February, while the M2 growth rate remained at 9.0%, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 3.1%. The increase in M1 growth may be due to the low base last year, the strong pull of M0 this month, improved corporate cash flow, and increased foreign exchange settlement demand. Although the loan growth rate declined this month, the M2 growth rate remained high, which may be related to the increased willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange under the expectation of RMB appreciation and the relatively fast pace of fiscal expenditure [1].

——2月金融数据点评:财政上量推动企业贷款持续改善,久期资产承压 - Reportify