烧碱周报：供应下滑+出口增加双向驱动烧碱期货价格上涨-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of caustic soda futures has risen due to the dual drivers of supply decline and increased exports. The core driving logic is the significant fluctuations in crude oil prices leading to large - scale price fluctuations in chemical futures, which have a great impact on caustic soda futures. Additionally, the conflict between the US and Iran has made it difficult to transport ethylene from the Middle East, causing overseas PVC plants to reduce their loads, and some domestic PVC enterprises that purchase ethylene externally to also reduce their loads, resulting in a passive reduction in the load of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises. This has led to a substantial increase in the export demand for domestic caustic soda. At the same time, some factories have reduced production due to sudden failures, further reducing the supply. Moreover, some downstream industries of liquid chlorine have reduced their liquid chlorine procurement plans due to maintenance or an inability to accept high prices, leading to a significant drop in the price of liquid chlorine, which in turn provides an upward driving force for the price of liquid caustic soda. Looking ahead, with the decline in overseas caustic soda production and the reduction in domestic supply, the logic of supply shortage and export volume increase still exists. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the situation of long - position profit - taking and the regression of the basis when the overseas caustic soda procurement sentiment fades [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - Supply: In the week from March 6th to March 12th, 2026, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more was 85.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The chlor - alkali loads in North China, Central China, and South China decreased significantly, driving the national chlor - alkali load to decline moderately. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load next week will be around 85%. The alumina production in this period was 1785,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. The production of viscose staple fiber was 92,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous week. As of March 12th, the physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories was 147,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 15,500 tons [5]. - Demand: As of March 12th, 2026, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 50.15%, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The startup rate in the Shaoxing region was 51.11%, an increase of 8.89% from the previous data but a year - on - year decrease of 13.33%. The startup and orders of dyeing factories show an obvious differentiation trend. Most dyeing factories have fully resumed work, but the order structure is differentiated. Some enterprises focusing on digital printing and differentiated products have sufficient orders and extended delivery times. The industry mostly purchases on - demand, and the overall order - receiving of dyeing factories shows a "short - term and long - term" structure, with intense competition for conventional products. In terms of dyeing fees, enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, but the downstream acceptance is limited. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in the Shengze region was 49.47%, an increase of 7.89% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. The terminal weaving industry is warming up slowly, and the domestic market and brand orders are mostly in a wait - and - see state. The rigid demand has been slightly released, mainly in small batches, and the large - scale orders are limited. In terms of foreign trade, due to unstable shipping factors, some brand and market orders have been placed, but the order volume is still significantly narrower than last year [5]. - Export: In December, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 309,600 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 59,400 tons [5]. - Inventory: As of March 11th, 2026, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in the country was 534,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The capacity utilization ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 30.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. Except for the stable capacity utilization ratio in Central China and the increase in the Southwest, the capacity utilization ratios in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, East China, and South China decreased month - on - month [5]. - Profit: This Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2094 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was 300 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 280 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level. The strong chlorine and weak caustic soda situation has led to a low comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [5]. 3.2 Price - Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Price: The report presents the historical price trends of Shandong 32% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price, the price difference between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, Shandong liquid chlorine price, and Shandong 50% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price from 2023 to 2026 [7][8]. - Flake Caustic Soda and Export Caustic Soda Price: It shows the historical price trends of Shandong flake caustic soda from 2023 to 2026 and the FOB price of caustic soda in East China from 2024 to 2026 [10][11]. - Caustic Soda Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - Month Spread: The report provides the historical price trends of the caustic soda main contract from 2024 to 2026, the basis of the 32% caustic soda main contract in Shandong region from 2024 to 2026, the basis of the 50% caustic soda main contract in Shandong region from 2024 to 2026, and the spread between the SH04 - SH05 contracts from 2024 - 2025 and 2025 - 2026 [12][13]. - Raw Salt and Coal Price: It shows the historical price trends of Shandong sea salt market price from 2022 to 2026, Shandong well - mine salt market price from 2024 to 2026, and Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price from 2022 to 2026 [15][16]. 3.3 Supply - Caustic Soda Supply: The report presents the historical trends of China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda plant loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production from 2022 to 2026 [18][19]. - Caustic Soda Maintenance Situation: This week, the Ganzhou Luoci in East China - Jiangxi resumed operation after a shutdown for maintenance from February 14th to March 3rd; the Jiangmen Guangyue in South China - Guangdong is under maintenance since February 24th, and the recovery time is to be determined. In the future, Hubei Yihua in Central China - Hubei plans to have maintenance from March 11th to the end of March; Jinling New Materials in North China - Shandong has a maintenance plan in March, with the specific time to be determined; Kesai Chemical in Central China - Hubei plans to shut down in early April for about 15 - 20 days; Baililian in Central China - Henan has a maintenance plan in April, with the specific time to be determined; Shandong Jinmao in North China - Shandong has a maintenance plan in April, with the specific time to be determined [22]. - Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit: It shows the historical trends of China's sample enterprises' liquid caustic soda inventory (wet tons), caustic soda futures warehouse receipt quantity, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt (dry tons), and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profit from 2022 to 2026 [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - Alumina Industry: The report presents the historical trends of China's alumina production, Shandong alumina production, alumina production in the Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan regions, alumina spot price in Shandong, Shandong alumina enterprise liquid caustic soda procurement price, electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory (excluding Xinjiang), and alumina in - transit inventory from 2022 to 2026 [27][28][29][30]. - Textile Industry: It shows the historical trends of viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, East China viscose staple fiber market price, viscose staple fiber factory inventory, Chinese cotton yarn enterprise viscose staple fiber inventory available days, Chinese textile enterprise weekly startup rate, Chinese textile enterprise order days, Chinese textile enterprise in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang region printing and dyeing factory startup rate from 2022 to 2026 [31][32][34][35]. - Pulp and Paper Industry: The report presents the historical trends of pulp production, paper product production, upstream factory paper product inventory available days, and China's machine - made paper and cardboard monthly production from 2021 to 2026 [37][38]. - Export: It shows the historical trends of China's monthly liquid caustic soda export volume, monthly flake caustic soda export volume, cumulative caustic soda export volume, and monthly caustic soda export volume from 2021 to 2025 [39][40].