尿素周报：尿素期货受整体化工品期货影响较大，国内化肥行业给出强劲保供稳价政策-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea futures are greatly affected by the overall chemical futures. In the current environment, the urea futures have shown significant fluctuations. The fundamentals of the domestic urea market are in a situation of strong supply and demand, but the sustainability of demand is not strong, and the policy shows a clear signal of stabilizing prices. It is expected that the upward driving force of urea futures in the later stage will mostly come from the influence of other chemical products, and the fundamentals and policy of urea itself do not support the urea futures to remain at the current level for a long time [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - Supply: The weekly average daily output of urea has been relatively stable, with some fluctuations due to enterprise shutdowns and restarts. For example, in the week of March 6 - 12, 2026, 3 new enterprises stopped production, and 2 stopped enterprises resumed production. The estimated weekly average daily output was 21.97 tons. In the following weeks, the output was 21.86 tons, 21.71 tons, and 21.71 tons respectively. There are also enterprises planning for maintenance and resuming production [5]. - Demand: - Agricultural demand: The demand for wheat fertilizer has started. - Compound fertilizer: The capacity utilization rate in this cycle is 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points compared with the previous cycle. Different regions have different situations. For example, in Hebei, due to environmental protection and relevant regulations, production is restricted significantly, while in Shandong and Henan, the impact is relatively small, and the operating rates of major enterprises continue to increase. In Hubei, with the increase in sales volume, the operating rates of large - scale enterprises increase, and those of small and medium - sized enterprises are relatively stable. In the next cycle, the resumption of production or increase in load of Hebei enterprises is expected to increase the operating rate. - Thermal power desulfurization and denitrification: The cumulative power generation from January to December 2025 was 6294.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year cumulative decline of 1%. With the rise in temperature, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification is expected to decline [5]. - Inventory: On March 11, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,600 tons, a decrease of 140,500 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 12.79%. Recently, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market trading sentiment has been driven, the downstream receiving enthusiasm has increased again, and the inventory of urea enterprises in most regions has decreased to varying degrees [5]. - Valuation: - Production cost: The cost of the new coal - gasification process in Henan urea factories is 1400 yuan. With the resumption of work in domestic coal mines and the warming of the weather, coal consumption has declined, and coal prices have been under pressure to decline. - Production profit: The profit of the new coal - gasification process in Henan urea factories is 410 yuan, and the profit is currently at a reasonable level. In a balanced supply - demand environment, the profit is expected to remain stable [5]. - Strategy: - Unilateral: Treat the UR2605 contract with a wide - range oscillation idea. - Arbitrage: No clear strategy is provided for the UR2605 - UR2609 spread. - Options: No clear strategy is provided for the UR2605 options. The urea futures are affected by the price fluctuations of other chemical futures. Although the current fundamentals of supply and demand are at their peak, the sustainability of demand is not strong, and the policy shows a clear signal of stabilizing prices [5]. 3.2 Price - Domestic urea spot price: The report presents the historical price trends of urea in Henan, Sichuan, Shanxi large - particle, and Shanxi small - particle from 2022 to 2026 [8]. - International urea price and spread: It shows the historical trends of small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2022 to 2026 [10]. - Phosphate and potash fertilizer prices: It shows the historical price trends of Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong 60% powdered potassium chloride from 2022 to 2026 [12]. - Urea futures price, basis, and inter - month spread: It shows the historical trends of the closing price of the urea futures 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread, and the basis of the 05 contract from 2021 - 2022 to 2025 - 2026 [14]. 3.3 Supply - Urea production: It shows the historical trends of China's weekly average daily urea production, weekly average daily production of natural - gas - based urea, and weekly average daily production of coal - based urea from 2022 to 2026 [18]. - Urea cost and profit: It shows the historical trends of the prices of anthracite medium - sized lumps, bituminous coal, the marginal profit of the Shanxi fixed - bed process, and the marginal profit of the new Henan urea process from 2022 to 2026 [21]. - Urea inventory and apparent consumption: It shows the historical trends of urea enterprise inventory, urea port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption of urea, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption of urea from 2022 to 2026 [24]. 3.4 Demand - Compound fertilizer industry: It shows the historical trends of the operating rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2022 to 2026 [28]. - Melamine industry: It shows the historical trends of the weekly production, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2022 to 2026 [30]. - Export: It shows the historical trends of China's monthly urea export volume and monthly cumulative export volume from 2021 to 2025 [32].