天然气周度思考第143期：尽管地缘仍在持续，但国际LNG价格并未如原油一般进一步走强-20260315

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the investment rating of the natural gas industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions persist, but international LNG prices have not strengthened further like crude oil. - In the domestic market, concerns about supply stability due to geopolitical issues remain, and downstream acceptance of high gas prices is low, causing domestic LNG prices to rise at the beginning of the week and then fall. - In the US, warmer weather has led to a weakening of HH prices, and the current high utilization rate of LNG export capacity limits the actual increase in export demand caused by the US - Iran conflict. - In Europe, gas prices rose and then fell this week. Although Europe's dependence on Middle - Eastern LNG is not high, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to insufficient international LNG supply, and the competition for LNG between Europe and Asia may intensify at the end of summer. - In the Asia - Pacific region, short - term prices are mainly affected by geopolitics and remain high. If the strait blockade continues, LNG prices will rise further [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Natural Gas Price Analysis - International Price Summary: The report provides the futures and spot prices of HH, AECO, TTF, NBP, JKM, and China's arrival prices, along with their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes. For example, the week - on - week change of HH futures price is - 0.06 (- 2%), and the month - on - month change is - 0.11 (- 3%) [11]. - Domestic Price Summary: It shows the prices of natural gas in different regions of China, such as the northwest, northeast, etc., and their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes. For instance, the week - on - week change of the northwest price is - 480 (- 10%) [21]. - Import Cost: It presents the LNG comprehensive import to - shore price, pipeline gas import average price, LNG import average price, and natural gas comprehensive import price, along with their trends [31]. - Related Commodity Price Summary: It includes the prices of JCC, low - sulfur fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil, Brent, etc., and their changes [37]. - Forward Curve: It shows the forward curves of HH, TTF, NBP, and JKM [46]. - Spread: It analyzes the basis spreads of HH and TTF, as well as the spreads between TTF - HH, JKM - HH, JKM - TTF, etc. [49][52]. - Profit: It calculates the theoretical production profit of Inner Mongolia LNG plants, LNG comprehensive import profit, and the economic comparison between LNG and pipeline gas [62]. - Freight: It shows the spot rents of LNG carriers in the Pacific and Atlantic [68]. 3.2 World Natural Gas Supply and Demand Analysis - Natural Gas Rig Count: It provides the rig counts in different regions such as Canada, Asia - Pacific, the world, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa [74][77]. - World Natural Gas Demand: It shows the natural gas consumption of OECD countries, including cumulative monthly consumption and month - on - month changes [79]. - World Natural Gas Import and Export: It presents the LNG exports of Australia, Russia's eastern region, Qatar, etc., and the LNG imports of Japan, South Korea, etc., as well as the utilization rates of export and receiving terminals [82][84][86]. - World Natural Gas Inventory: It includes the LNG inventories of Japan's public utilities, South Korea, etc., and the inventories of LNG on water [89]. - World Important City Temperatures: It shows the CDD and HDD values of Seoul and Tokyo, including the maximum, minimum, and average values over the past five years [92]. - World Natural Gas Supply and Demand Forecast: It provides the BNEF forecasts of world LNG exports and imports, as well as the supply - demand forecasts of Japan and South Korea [94][96][98]. 3.3 US Natural Gas Supply and Demand Analysis - US Natural Gas Production: It shows the weekly dry gas production and the EIA's expected production [103][105]. - US Natural Gas Rig Count: It presents the weekly rig counts of crude oil and natural gas in the US [107]. - US Natural Gas Demand: It includes the weekly natural gas consumption, power generation gas consumption, residential/commercial gas consumption, and industrial gas consumption in the US, as well as the electricity demand, coal - fired power generation, natural gas - fired power generation, and nuclear power generation [110][113][115]. - US Natural Gas Import and Export: It shows the LNG exports, net intakes of various LNG terminals, and pipeline gas imports and exports in the US [118][120][125]. - US Natural Gas Inventory: It presents the inventories of US storage facilities, including underground storage facilities in different regions [127][130][133]. - US Major City Temperatures: It shows the CDD and HDD values of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, including the maximum, minimum, and average values over the past five years [136]. - US EIA Natural Gas Balance Sheet: It provides the supply, demand, and inventory changes of US natural gas from January 2026 to December 2027 [138]. 3.4 European Natural Gas Supply and Demand Analysis - European Natural Gas Production: It shows the production of the UK, the Netherlands, and Norway [143]. - European Natural Gas Rig Count: It presents the number of European rigs [146]. - European Natural Gas Demand: It includes the total consumption and natural gas - fired power generation in France, Italy, Germany, and Spain [148][150][153]. - European Natural Gas Import and Export: It shows the pipeline gas exports of Norway, TAP, North Africa to Italy and the Iberian Peninsula, Russia's exports to different parts of Europe, and the LNG imports of different regions in Europe [155][158][161]. - European Natural Gas Inventory: It includes the injection, extraction, and inventory levels of European storage facilities, as well as the inventories of LNG receiving stations in different countries [167][170][179]. - European Important City Temperatures: It shows the CDD and HDD values of Madrid, Berlin, Paris, and Rome, including the maximum, minimum, and average values over the past five years [183][186]. - Other: It shows the water level of the Rhine River at Kaub [189]. - European Natural Gas Supply and Demand Forecast: It provides the BNEF forecasts of European natural gas supply, demand, and inventory changes from May 2026 to March 2027 [191]. 3.5 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand Analysis - Natural Gas Total Supply: It shows the monthly and cumulative values of natural gas total supply and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes [197]. - Natural Gas Production: It presents the monthly and cumulative values of domestic natural gas production and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes [200]. - Natural Gas Import: It includes the monthly and cumulative values of total natural gas imports, pipeline gas imports, and LNG imports, as well as the number of LNG vessels at receiving stations, LNG arrival volumes, and receiving station utilization rates [203][206][208]. - LNG Commodity Volume: - Receiving Station Truck - Loading Volume: It shows the truck - loading volumes of different regions and their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [214]. - LNG Plant Production: It presents the production of different regions and their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes, as well as the LNG plant operating rate [226][228]. - Natural Gas Total Demand: It shows the monthly and cumulative values of natural gas apparent consumption and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes, as well as the weekly and cumulative values of domestic LNG total demand [244][248]. - LNG Plant Shipment Volume: It shows the shipment volumes of different regions and their week - on - week and month - on - month changes [249]. - Weather: It provides the weather forecasts for the next 10 days and 11 - 14 days in China, as well as the CDD and HDD values of Beijing, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Shanghai [261][262][264]. - Natural Gas Sector - by - Sector Consumption: - Transportation Gas Consumption: It shows the sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks and the China Logistics Prosperity Index [266]. - Industrial Gas Consumption: It presents the PMI index [268]. - Power Generation Gas Consumption: It shows the water level of the Three Gorges Dam [270]. - Natural Gas Inventory: - LNG Plant Inventory: It shows the inventories of different regions and their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [273]. - Receiving Station Inventory: The report does not provide specific data on receiving station inventory.