Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-15 06:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [3]. Core Insights - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are exerting downward pressure on metal prices due to inflationary concerns and a shift towards stagflation trading [1][9]. - The report highlights a strong expectation for aluminum prices to remain robust due to supply tightening from geopolitical risks, despite a cautious demand outlook [9]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, with expectations for prices to remain within a defined range [9][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of geopolitical events on supply chains across various metals [9][66]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a general upward trend in stock prices despite recent market volatility [12]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum: Prices are expected to remain high due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply, with LME prices projected to range between $3,400 and $3,600 per ton [25][26]. - Copper: The market is characterized by short-term fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events and macroeconomic indicators, with prices expected to oscillate between $12,800 and $13,200 per ton [44][45]. - Zinc: Prices are under pressure due to increasing domestic inventories and geopolitical uncertainties, with LME prices recorded at $3,293.5 per ton [52][53]. 3. Precious and Minor Metals - Gold: The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices in the medium to long term, driven by central bank purchases and weakening US dollar credit [9]. - Silver: Industrial demand for silver may face challenges due to the impact of lower photovoltaic material costs, which could suppress prices [9]. - Nickel: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to supply constraints from Indonesia and geopolitical risks, with a projected range of 135,000 to 145,000 yuan per ton [66]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights on rare earths in this section, focusing instead on the broader trends in base and precious metals [9].