——流动性与机构行为周度跟踪260315：如何看待同业活期自律趋严对资金面的影响-20260315

Group 1: Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net withdrawal this week totaled 101.1 billion, with a significant decrease in the scale of OMO maturities, maintaining liquidity support despite government bond repayments [2][16] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos slightly decreased to 8.57 trillion, while the overall scale remained above 12 trillion [3][23] - The tightening of interbank liquidity self-discipline has led to a significant decline in short-term interest rates, with the DR001 maintaining around 1.32% [4][28] Group 2: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The 1-year Shibor rate decreased by 0.88 basis points to 1.576%, while the 1-year AAA-rated interbank certificate of deposit rate fell by 1.75 basis points to 1.5325% [10] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit turned into a net repayment of 146.1 billion, indicating a decrease in financing from state-owned banks [10][23] - The supply-demand index for certificates of deposit showed an upward trend, with an increase in willingness to invest in secondary markets [10][29] Group 3: Government Bonds and Financing - The net repayment of government bonds this week was -132.1 billion, with upcoming issuances of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y bonds totaling approximately 585 billion [5][39] - The average issuance term of local government bonds decreased from 17.2 years in February to 15.0 years in March, indicating a shift in financing strategies [5][39] - The estimated net financing for government bonds in March is approximately 1.07 trillion, which is lower than the same period last year [9][39] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The central bank's recent statements indicate a reluctance to signal further easing of monetary policy, reflecting concerns over inflation and external pressures [37][38] - The expected net repayment of government bonds will increase to 306.3 billion next week, with significant repayments concentrated in the latter half of the week [5][39] - The overall liquidity environment is expected to remain accommodative, with DR001 likely to stay within the 1.3%-1.35% range [38]