收益率短下长上,信用利差除1Y外大多走阔
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-15 07:17
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The net supply of ordinary credit bonds in the primary market decreased compared to the previous period, and there were no new issuances or maturities of bank perpetual and subordinated bonds. In the secondary market, short - term yields declined while medium - and long - term yields increased, and most credit spreads widened except for the 1 - year bonds. The credit spreads in March may fluctuate weakly, but the risk of a significant widening is relatively controllable. It is recommended to moderately reduce the duration and wait for potential allocation opportunities in the short - to medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - Ordinary Credit Bonds: The issuance of ordinary credit bonds increased, but the net financing decreased. The issuance of industrial bonds increased, and the net financing also increased slightly. The issuance of urban investment bonds increased slightly, but the net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance term of ordinary credit bonds decreased to 2.87 years. The bid - cap to coupon rate of credit bonds increased from 0.45% to 0.46%, and the subscription multiple decreased from 3.22 to 3.00 [4][7][21]. - Bank Perpetual and Subordinated Bonds: There were no new issuances or maturities of bank perpetual and subordinated bonds this period, and there have been no issuances for 10 consecutive weeks [4][25]. 3.2 Secondary Market - Yields: Short - term yields declined, and medium - and long - term yields increased. For example, 1 - year medium - term notes of all ratings decreased by 1.7BP, while 10 - year AAA -/AA +/AA - grade bank perpetual bonds all increased by 6.8BP, and 10 - year AAA - grade bank secondary capital bonds increased by 7.3BP [4]. - Credit Spreads: Most credit spreads widened except for short - term (1 - year) medium - term notes and bank perpetual and subordinated bonds. The 1 - year bank secondary capital bonds performed the best, with the AAA - grade narrowing by 0.7BP, AA +/AA - grade narrowing by 0.9BP, and AA - grade narrowing by 1.9BP. The 10 - year bank secondary capital bonds had the largest widening amplitude [4]. - Turnover Rate: The turnover rates of urban investment bonds and bank perpetual and subordinated bonds increased this week, while the turnover rate of industrial bonds decreased [4][57]. 3.3 Urban Investment Bonds - Yields: Yields in different regions showed differentiation. For example, in Anhui, the yields of AAA - series, AA +, AA, AA(2), and AA - were 1.85%, 1.84%, 1.83%, 1.91%, and 2.12% respectively as of March 13, 2026 [69]. - Credit Spreads: Most credit spreads widened. For example, in Anhui, the credit spreads of AAA - series, AA +, AA, AA(2), and AA - were 22.71BP, 23.08BP, 24.10BP, 32.84BP, and 55.01BP respectively [71]. - Turnover Rate: The turnover rates in different regions also showed differences [72]. 3.4 Industrial Bonds - Yields: The yields of various industries decreased overall. For example, the yields of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry's AAA - series, AA +, AA, and AA - were 1.89%, 1.88%, 1.99%, and 2.92% respectively as of March 13, 2026 [78]. - Credit Spreads: Most credit spreads widened passively. For example, the credit spreads of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry's AAA - series, AA +, AA, and AA - were 21.80BP, 27.70BP, 41.40BP, and 135.64BP respectively [80]. - Turnover Rate: The turnover rates of different industries showed differences [82]. 3.5 Financial Bonds - Yields: Yields showed differentiation. For example, the yields of the AAA - grade bank secondary capital bonds of state - owned large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and small and medium - sized banks were 2.03%, 2.02%, and 1.90% respectively as of March 13, 2026 [107]. - Credit Spreads: Most credit spreads widened. For example, the credit spreads of the AAA - grade bank secondary capital bonds of state - owned large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and small and medium - sized banks were 33.03BP, 33.27BP, and 26.95BP respectively [107]. - Turnover Rate: The turnover rates of bank secondary capital bonds and bank perpetual bonds in different regions and with different ratings showed differences [94]. 3.6 Stock Bond Distribution - The current yields are mostly distributed within 2.4%. The average yields of industrial bonds in various industries and urban investment bonds in different regions are presented in detail, showing different distributions according to implicit ratings and remaining maturities [119][121].