Xinda Securities·2026-03-15 08:04Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the oil refining industry, indicating a protective reduction in refinery loads that is driving up the price differentials of energy and chemical products [1]. Core Insights - The price differential for key domestic refining projects reached 2895.92 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 407.03 CNY/ton (+16.35%), while the international price differential was 2945.64 CNY/ton, up 1144.84 CNY/ton (+63.57%) as of March 13, 2026 [2][3]. - Brent crude oil averaged 97.18 USD/barrel for the week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 18.49% [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices reaching 103.14 USD/barrel and 98.71 USD/barrel respectively, marking increases of 10.45 USD and 7.81 USD from the previous week [15]. - The chemical sector is experiencing price increases due to high international oil prices and preventive load reductions at refineries, which have improved price differentials for chemical products [2][15]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions have impacted oil production and exports from countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, leading to increased market concerns about supply disruptions [2][15]. - Domestic and international refined oil prices have risen significantly, with domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7780.29 CNY (+934.57), 9317.43 CNY (+1147.71), and 6642.31 CNY (+1195.86) per ton respectively [15]. Chemical Sector - The report notes that the prices of polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE) have increased, with average prices of 12350.00 CNY (+2257.14), 8066.57 CNY (+965.43), and 7600.00 CNY (no change) per ton respectively [55]. - EVA prices have risen due to tightening supply, with an average price of 11200.00 CNY (+771.43) per ton [55]. - The price of pure benzene has also increased significantly, with an average price of 8628.57 CNY (+1935.71) per ton, reflecting improved price differentials [55].