宏观与大类资产周报：重回risk-on的两种路径-20260315

Domestic Insights - External inflation may bring China's PPI close to positive year-on-year growth in March[1] - China's export growth for January-February recorded a two-digit increase of 21.8%, but is expected to slow significantly in March[1] - The "Belt and Road" initiative's impact on Chinese exports has diminished, although U.S. factors remain positive, necessitating observation of Q2 export trends[1] Overseas Developments - Concerns arise from the spread of private credit issues in the U.S., with firms like BlackRock and Blackstone facing redemption limits, raising market fears[1] - The U.S. Trade Representative announced a 301 investigation against 16 trade partners, including China and the EU, ahead of tariff expiration on July 24[1] - The potential for increased tariffs under Section 232 investigations is high, with a focus on various critical products[1] Asset Market Analysis - Historically, A-shares tend to weaken during Fed rate hikes or expectations, while they perform better during rate cuts or expectations[1] - Recent geopolitical tensions have dampened expectations for Fed rate cuts, putting downward pressure on domestic equities[1] - Two potential paths for recovery in A-shares: a return to bullish trends if oil prices cool and the Fed signals rate cuts, or a repeat of liquidity risks similar to the Silicon Valley Bank incident if inflation pressures persist[1]