流动性冲击再现，美元指数走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "fluctuating" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing US - Iran situation continues to pressure market risk appetite, leading to a decline in global stock markets and an increase in bond yields. The dollar index is strengthening, and non - US currencies are mostly depreciating. The supply disruption is bringing stagflation pressure to the global economy, and the short - term tightening expectation of monetary policy is causing a double - kill situation in the stock and bond markets. The situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate market trends [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite has decreased, most stock markets have fallen, and most bond yields have risen. The US bond yield has reached 4.28%. The dollar index has risen 1.39% to 100.4, non - US currencies have mostly depreciated, the gold price has dropped 2.9% to $5019 per ounce, the VIX index has slightly dropped to 27, the spot commodity index has closed up, and Brent crude oil has risen 9.8% to $103.6 per barrel [2][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly declined. The S&P 500 has fallen 1.6%, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 0.7%, the Eurozone stock market, emerging market stock markets, the Nikkei 225 Index, and the Hang Seng Index have all declined. The US - Iran situation, inflation pressure, and the dilemma of the Fed's monetary policy have suppressed market risk appetite. The situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate market trends, and the Chinese stock market will fluctuate [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly risen. The 10 - year US bond yield has reached 4.28%. The Middle East situation has led to rising oil prices, a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and an increase in the US bond yield. The risk of stagflation is negative for the bond market. The Chinese 10 - year bond yield has slightly risen to 1.83%, and the bond market is in a weak and volatile state in the short term [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The dollar index has risen 1.39% to 100.4, and non - US currencies have mostly depreciated. Offshore RMB has depreciated 0.05%, the euro has depreciated 1.77%, the pound has depreciated 1.38%, the yen has depreciated 1.24%, the Swiss franc has depreciated 1.95%, and the New Zealand dollar and the rand have fallen by more than 2%. The Australian dollar, Korean won, peso, Canadian dollar, real, Thai baht, etc. have all depreciated [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has dropped 2.9% to $5019 per ounce, and its short - term trend is volatile. Brent crude oil has risen 9.8% to $103.6 per barrel, and the commodity spot index has closed up. The supply risk of crude oil and chemical products has increased, and the oil price remains strong [27][28] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The US - Iran war has once again triggered a liquidity shock. The situation is highly uncertain, and market volatility will remain high. Whether the US can control Kharg Island is a major variable in the war [29][32] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's February retail sales and industrial added - value data - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest - rate meeting decision - Wednesday: US February PPI, Bank of Canada interest - rate meeting decision - Thursday: Fed, ECB, and Bank of England interest - rate meetings - Friday: China's March LPR [34]